Chances Are . . .

The flashback scenes in Chances Are... take place during the Vietnam War, and the draft plays a major role in the characters’ lives. The Selective Service was first instituted during World War I with the Selective Service Act of 1917, and it was later reinstated for World War II and the Korean War. However, it became especially controversial during the Vietnam War. Unlike the earlier wars, Vietnam was the first US conflict where conscription occurred without a formal declaration of war. Additionally, public support for military action in Vietnam was sharply divided.

Between 1964 and 1973, 27 million American men were eligible for the draft, and 2.2 million of them were drafted into service (“Resistance and Revolution: The Anti-Vietnam War Movement at the University of Michigan, 1965-1972.” Michigan in the World, 2015). The system favored deferments—exemptions granted for college enrollment, health reasons, or certain occupations—leading to accusations of class and racial bias. For instance, working-class and non-white men were drafted in disproportionate numbers, while wealthier individuals often avoided service through educational or medical exemptions.

The introduction of the draft lottery system on December 1, 1969, aimed to make conscription appear more random and fair. During a live broadcast, each date of the year was placed in a plastic capsule. These capsules were then placed in a large container and drawn at random, pairing each birth date with a number. The first date drawn was September 14, so men with a September 14 birth date were given the lottery number 1, meaning they were in the first cohort of draftees to be called up. (“Vietnam Lotteries.” Selective Service System.) While this didn’t guarantee conscription—soldiers were only drafted if there were insufficient volunteer recruits—a lower number greatly increased the chances of being drafted.

Chances Are... depicts the anxiety surrounding this process: Mickey receives number 9, almost guaranteeing his deployment, while Teddy’s 322 effectively ensures his safety. Lincoln’s middle-range number, 189, leaves him in limbo. Many young men sought to avoid the draft by claiming conscientious objector status, seeking deferments, or fleeing to countries like Canada. Draft evasion carried serious penalties, including imprisonment, fines, and a criminal record. Over 200,000 Americans were formally accused of draft-related offenses, and it is estimated that between 60,000 and 100,000 men fled the country (Cortright, David. Peace: A History of Movements and Ideas. Cambridge University Press, 2008, pp. 164-65). One of Russo’s main characters, Mickey, represents this group—ultimately choosing exile to avoid serving in a war he did not support.

Public sentiment toward the draft evolved sharply over time. Early in the conflict, many Americans supported the war effort. But by the late 1960s, anti-war protests surged, particularly on college campuses. The draft became a focal point of resistance, seen not just as a bureaucratic process but as a moral injustice. After the war, President Gerald Ford’s 1974 conditional amnesty allowed many draft dodgers to return to the US under certain conditions, signaling a broader shift in public opinion.