Chances Are . . .

The flashback scenes in Chances Are... take place during the Vietnam War, and the draft plays a major role in the characters’ lives. The Selective Service was first instituted during World War I with the Selective Service Act of 1917, and it was later reinstated for World War II and the Korean War. However, it became especially controversial during the Vietnam War. Unlike the earlier wars, Vietnam was the first US conflict where conscription occurred without a formal declaration of war. Additionally, public support for military action in Vietnam was sharply divided.

Between 1964 and 1973, 27 million American men were eligible for the draft, and 2.2 million of them were drafted into service (“Resistance and Revolution: The Anti-Vietnam War Movement at the University of Michigan, 1965-1972.” Michigan in the World, 2015). The system favored deferments—exemptions granted for college enrollment, health reasons, or certain occupations—leading to accusations of class and racial bias. For instance, working-class and non-white men were drafted in disproportionate numbers, while wealthier individuals often avoided service through educational or medical exemptions.

The introduction of the draft lottery system on December 1, 1969, aimed to make conscription appear more random and fair. During a live broadcast, each date of the year was placed in a plastic capsule.