Chances Are . . .

Written by American author Richard Russo, Chances Are… (2019) is a work of literary fiction that follows three 66-year-old college friends as they reunite on Martha’s Vineyard, a trip that forces them to confront a 44-year-old mystery surrounding the disappearance of Jacy, a woman they all loved. A Pulitzer Prize-winning novelist who is known for works like Empire Falls and Nobody’s Fool, Russo often explores themes of male friendship, class divisions, and the disillusionments of life in the small-town United States. Set against the backdrop of the Vietnam War era and the 1969 draft lottery, Chances Are… examines The Unknowable Past and the Fallibility of Memory, Defining Masculinity Through Class and Character, and The Collision of Chance, Fate, and Personal Choice.

This guide refers to the 2019 Alfred A. Knopf edition.

Content Warning: The source material and guide feature depictions of mental illness, sexual violence, child abuse, addiction, substance use, illness or death, bullying, physical abuse, emotional abuse, suicidal ideation, pregnancy termination, and graphic violence.

Plot Summary

Three 66-year-old friends—Lincoln Moser, Teddy Novak, and Mickey Girardi—reunite on Martha’s Vineyard at the Chilmark house that Lincoln inherited from his mother, Trudy. Their time together in college is revealed in an interwoven series of flashbacks and memories as all three aging men make their way to the island for a long-overdue reunion and reflect on their experiences in the late 1960s, when they worked as “hashers” in the cafeteria for the Theta sorority. There, all three fell in love with a beautiful, spirited Theta named Jacy Calloway, who was engaged to another man. The 1969 Vietnam draft lottery sealed their fates, with Mickey drawing a low number (9), making him likely to be drafted, while Lincoln’s number, 189, was low enough to make his fate uncertain. Only Teddy, who drew the number 322, was safe. The narrative introduces their disparate backgrounds. Lincoln is the son of a domineering Arizona mine owner named Wolfgang “Dub-Yay” Moser; Teddy is the lonely, intellectual child of two distant English teachers; and Mickey is a talented musician from a working-class Connecticut family.

In the present day, Lincoln now works as a commercial realtor in Las Vegas. He arrives on Martha’s Vineyard first because he is contemplating selling the Chilmark house so that his family can recover from the 2008 financial crisis. His realtor tells him that his ornery neighbor, Mason Troyer, is eager to buy the property, but Lincoln has no wish to sell to Troyer specifically. Teddy arrives next; he is now a small-press publisher for a college and is privately struggling with periodic panic attacks and undefined mental health crises that he calls “spells.” As he and Lincoln reconnect, their conversation quickly turns to their families and the unresolved mystery of Jacy’s disappearance in 1971. Mickey arrives last, riding in on his Harley and immediately reestablishing their old camaraderie with his boisterous presence. From the deck of the house, the three friends observe a naked Troyer lounging on his deck and recall the man’s unsavory, lecherous antics as their college-era antagonist. Lincoln, unsettled by Troyer’s attention and presence, researches him and discovers that he has a history of violence toward women; this deepens his suspicion that Troyer may have been involved in Jacy’s disappearance.

The narrative flashes back to Memorial Day weekend in 1971, just after Jacy and the three men have their college graduation. As the four friends gather for a final weekend at the Chilmark house, they have trouble maintaining their usual “all for one, one for all” Three Musketeers mindset, as they feel the imminence of major life changes. Jacy joins the three men at the Chilmark house and privately struggles with her second thoughts about her impending wedding to her fiancé, Vance. When Mason Troyer shows up uninvited and gropes Jacy in the kitchen, Mickey punches him and breaks his jaw. Later, Jacy and Teddy go to the picturesque Gay Head cliffs alone, and she confides her doubts about her marriage and kisses him. However, their intimate moment is disrupted when Teddy reveals that a high school spinal injury has left him with erectile dysfunction. Early the next morning, Teddy sees Jacy leave a note and slip away, and he and Lincoln let her go without stopping her. Her note reads only, “No goodbyes. I couldn’t bear it” (148). Shortly after her fiancé, Vance, returns home, he receives a postcard with a note from her, postmarked from the island, in which she breaks off their engagement. After that, she seems to vanish entirely.

In the present, Lincoln’s unease about Jacy’s disappearance drives him to investigate. He visits the Vineyard Gazette archives and then speaks with a retired police chief named Joe Coffin, who reviews the cold case. Coffin speculates that Jacy may never have left the island and suggests that either Troyer or one of the three friends could have been involved in foul play. Coffin also obliquely reveals that he has known Troyer for many years, as the two once played sports together as younger men.

When Coffin tells Troyer about Lincoln’s snooping, Troyer goes to the Chilmark house and confronts Teddy in Lincoln’s absence. He is furious that Lincoln is spreading rumors about him and denies any involvement with Jacy’s disappearance, suggesting instead that Mickey is the one who has secrets. Later, Teddy overhears Mickey speaking on the phone to a woman named Delia; the conversation indicates that she is having money troubles.

That night, at Mickey’s urging, the three friends go to a club called Rockers to see a band play, only learning at the last minute that the band, Big Mick on Pots, is Mickey’s band. Just as Mickey and the band are about to perform, Lincoln gets a call from Coffin, who reveals that Mickey was once arrested for beating up Donald Calloway (the man who raised Jacy) and sending him into a coma. At that moment, a woman with purple hair insists on joining the band as a singer. Her voice is uncannily like Jacy’s. The convergence of this news and the singer’s voice overwhelms Teddy, who collapses and suffers a severe eye injury.

After Teddy is released from the hospital, the three friends gather on the deck of the Chilmark house for a final confrontation. Lincoln, armed with Coffin’s information, accuses Mickey of hiding the truth. He voices his suspicion that Mickey may have killed Jacy and prepares to physically attack his friend. However, his impulse is abruptly checked by the appearance of the purple-haired singer, whose name is Delia. She is Mickey and Jacy’s daughter. This revelation forces Mickey to confess the full story, and he reveals that Jacy’s life was built on lies. Donald Calloway was not her biological father and had been sexually abusing her for years. Her biological father was a Greek immigrant named Andres “Andy” Demopoulos, with whom her mother, Vivian, had had an affair. Andres had cerebellar ataxia, a degenerative neurological disease, and died alone shortly before Jacy’s graduation. Devastated by these truths, Jacy planned to die by suicide but was saved by Teddy’s invitation to the Vineyard. She ran away from home after taking money from Donald’s safe, and at the end of the Memorial Day weekend, she and Mickey met secretly, where she convinced him to flee with her to Canada.

Once there, they formed a band called Andy’s Revenge, but Jacy’s own ataxia symptoms soon appeared and progressed rapidly after she fell from the stage, causing her to need a wheelchair. Depressed, she left Mickey without explanation. During their year apart, she gave birth to their daughter, Delia, and gave her up for adoption. Jacy eventually returned to Mickey, but she died the next day after falling down the stairs. Mickey, ashamed and grieving, kept her death a secret from his friends for over 40 years.

In the aftermath of Mickey’s confession, the friends find a painful resolution. Mickey explains that Delia, now an adult who is experiencing addiction, found him a few years ago and joined his band. Teddy, finding a new sense of purpose, decides to stay on the island to repair the Chilmark house. He invites Delia to stay and work with him, offering her friendship and support. Lincoln apologizes to Mickey for his suspicions, and after informing Coffin of the truth about Jacy’s disappearance, he decides not to sell the house. He ends his feud with Troyer by offering him a legal easement to his property for $1. The three friends part ways, their bond altered but intact, and the novel ends with Teddy looking out over the water, contemplating the unpredictable nature of life and enjoying his renewed sense of hope.