Conjectures and Refutations

Karl Popper

83 pages 2-hour read

Karl Popper

Conjectures and Refutations

Nonfiction | Essay Collection | Adult | Published in 1963

A modern alternative to SparkNotes and CliffsNotes, SuperSummary offers high-quality Study Guides with detailed chapter summaries and analysis of major themes, characters, and more.

Part 2, Chapters 11-14Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Part 2: “Refutations”

Part 2, Chapter 11 Summary: “The Demarcation Between Science and Metaphysics”

This chapter is a critique of German philosopher Rudolf Carnap’s theory on the demarcation between science and metaphysics (i.e., pseudo-science). Carnap argues that whereas science is meaningful, metaphysics is complete nonsense and worthless; the difference lies in that the accuracy of scientific theories can be verified whereas that of metaphysical theories cannot. 


In the introductory remarks of this chapter, Popper briefly describes how he first met Carnap at a seminar around 1928-1929, and they bonded over hiking and sharing ideas. Popper praises Carnap as one of the most captivating people he knows, especially given his readiness to listen to and accept criticism. Having read his recent publications, Popper spends the rest of the chapter discussing how Carnap’s conclusions about the demarcation of science and metaphysics clashes with his own. 


Popper finds Carnap’s theory flawed on two levels. First, he believes that metaphysics, though not science, is not always meaningless. Second, he argues that meaninglessness in itself is not the right marker for distinguishing between science and non-science. It is at once too narrow and too wide a marker: It has been shown to exclude actual scientific theories as meaningless while failing to exclude pseudo-scientific facts. 


Traditionally, philosophers have supported the idea that science is unique for being based on observations and for using an inductive method of reasoning, whereas metaphysics is speculative and abstract. Popper has always been wary of this hypothesis, because, on one hand, some of the greatest scientific discoveries began as speculative and abstract theories—this includes, famously, Einstein’s theory of relativity, which could not have any observational basis. On the other hand, many superstitions, despite having no basis in truth, were formed based on empirical observations and induction. Such is the case for astrology, which claims to derive its source from observing the stars.


Popper himself proposes that science differentiates itself from metaphysics by its critical approach and its testability. The first invites criticism and attempts to falsify it. The second stresses the importance of degrees of testability—the more precise and easily refutable a theory, the more interesting it is, and the more testable it becomes. In reverse, the more testable a theory is, the more it can be corroborated. By this logic of degrees of testability, some theories will be highly testable; others will not be easily testable, and yet others will not be testable at all. Popper believes only theories that fall under this last category should be considered metaphysical.


The author stresses that, unlike Carnap, he believes even metaphysical theories, which cannot be tested, are not completely worthless. He offers two reasons for why he makes this claim. The first is that metaphysical statements at least have the purpose of conveying ideas (even if they might be highly inaccurate, given their unverifiability) through the use of language. The second is that, while isolated universal statements are untestable, their negation is not. For example, the statement “there exists a perpetual motion machine” is as untestable as “there exists a god.” However, if the negation of a universal statement is meaningful, then the universal statement must also be meaningful for providing the contextual basis for its negation.


Carnap has previously proposed constructing a scientific language in which all words would have a purpose, and meaninglessness—and, by extension, metaphysical claims—would be eliminated. Popper criticizes this attempt at creating formalized scientific language by demonstrating that it is actually detrimental to the development of science. 


He first points out that attempting to create a physicalist language—that is, a “scientific” language that only speaks of physical things and how they move in space and time—is futile, because even basic physical statements necessary for science sometimes require referencing metaphysical concepts, such as forces and fields, which are invisible and have no material form. Therefore, while statements like “God exists” or “humans can feel emotions that are distinguished from bodily movements” are metaphysical in nature, they should not be altogether banished as worthless. According to Popper, it is not language that should be physicalist in nature, but tests performed to verify metaphysical theories. These tests must be reports about physical bodies that can be observed because obtaining empirical results mitigates the problem of observational bias and subjectivism.


Second, Popper points out that it is wrong to assume everything meaningful can be conveyed using only a universal scientific language. He begins by referencing the Incompleteness Theorem of Austrian mathematician and philosopher Kurt Gödel, which states that no consistent axiomatic system is complete, and no set of axioms can prove its own consistency. He then establishes, using Polish-American logician Alfred Tarski’s undefinability theorem, that the incompleteness problem is applicable not only to mathematics, but to semantics as well. 


Popper then adds that philosophy should therefore not limit itself to language analysis for fear of being labeled metaphysical, and that science should not attempt to craft a perfect language—both causes are futile, and people should strive to make themselves better understood instead. He argues that any satisfactory language should contain formulas and their negation, as well as universal sentences. As a result, it is unavoidable that it should contain existential sentences as well, which are metaphysical in nature but not meaningless.


Popper concludes this subsection by raising the question of why it is desirable to construct a universal axiomatic language system free of metaphysical statements. He asks, what more does it accomplish and what problem is it trying to solve? Acceptability in science is not based upon a truth-surrogate such as an axiomatic language, but upon the severity of tests performed to disprove it.


The final section of this chapter is a criticism of Carnap’s theory of verificationism, which claims, in simple terms, that a theory is more desirable and scientific the more it is verified. Carnap argues that this very idea is wrong according to the traditional rules of probability, since a highly probable prediction in science is usually poor in content and not meaningful (“it might rain or might not rain tomorrow”). On the other hand, theories that are high in content are much more testable since they offer more information (“it will rain between 3 PM and 6 PM tomorrow”), and are therefore more meaningful. Thus, aiming for high probability often favors ad hoc theories that demonstrate very little beyond already-known facts. 


To conclude, Popper reiterates that attempts at eliminating metaphysical statements from science are wholly meaningless and that using verificationism as a means to establish meaningfulness is misguided. Instead, scientists should strive to make good use of language so they are more easily understood, and the meaningfulness of a theory lies in its informational content and its falsifiability.

Part 2, Chapter 12 Summary: “Language and the Body-Mind Problem”

Chapter 12 is written as a series of clauses and is separated into seven subcategories, which have been listed and summarized below.


1. Introduction


The central thesis of this chapter asserts that there cannot be a physicalist causal theory of the human language. Here, physicalism refers to the belief that everything knowable by humans has to have a physical form. In the context of language, physicalism gives credence to behaviorism, the idea that any action performed by an organism, including the use of language in communication, is but a response to stimuli. In other words, Popper rejects the idea that human language can only be understood as behaviorism.


2. Four Major Functions of Language


In this section, Popper references the work of German psychologist and linguist Karl Bühler, who assigned three major functions to the human language. These are presented in a strict hierarchy, where the higher functions cannot be present without the lower functions, but the lower functions do not require the higher ones to be true.


The first and lowest is the expressive or symptomatic function, where language is the result of an attempt to express voice physical sensations or other experiences. The second is the stimulative or signal function, which is the use of language to make requests. The third is the descriptive function, whose purpose is to communicate ideas.


To Bühler’s thesis, Popper adds a fourth function, which is the argumentative function. It is different from the descriptive function because it requires the use of logic and reason. It is also the highest function because it encompasses all the other functions: It is an expression for being an “outward symptom of an internal state;” it is a signal because it seeks to provoke a reply; and it is a description as the view it supports is a state of affairs (295).


3. A Group of Theses


Science and philosophy both make use of the descriptive and argumentative functions of language, but behaviorism and physicalism can only be limited to the two lowest functions. This is because two people may exhibit the same outward linguistic behavior, but they may have done so for completely different reasons. Since human intent has no physical form, it cannot be seen in a person’s behavior. For example, two people may both praise a political candidate, but one may only be repeating what he has heard (expressive function) and the other might be preparing to persuade their listener (argumentative function). Neither the physicalist nor behaviorist theories could tell the difference; they are hence bound to either ignore the existence of the higher functions or dismiss them as outliers of the lower functions.


4. The Machine Argument


Popper demonstrates that the higher functions cannot be simply dismissed as special cases of the lower functions. Intent, despite having no physical shape, matters, particularly in differentiating humans from machines. A thermometer, for example, can be said to express, signal, and even describe its internal state (the temperature it reads). However, it cannot rationally be attributed any intent—it is not the thermometer that volunteers this information out of its personal will, but rather reflects the intent of its maker.


This is why people do not argue with machines; the machine’s behavior is not characterized by intent. By extension, then, the use of language in any serious social situation must assume the existence of intentionality in the listener. Some have argued it is impossible to know whether other minds truly exist; Popper believes that the existence of language itself solves the problem.


5. The Causal Theory of Naming


Popper asserts that it is impossible to establish a causal relationship between an object and its name, which then implies that there cannot be a causal physical theory of the two highest functions of language—description and argumentation.


He provides the following example to explain his theory: A machine that is coded to name every ginger cat “Mike,” might respond by saying “Mike” if it recognizes a ginger cat. However, this does not imply that it realizes there is a direct causal relationship between ginger cats and the name “Mike.” This is because, prior to the cat’s appearance, the machine is already ready to respond with “Mike” if given the right stimuli. There are no objective physical situations in which it is “correct” to respond to ginger cats with naming them “Mike.” The rule has to be established by the machine’s maker, and the choice of name is entirely arbitrary.


Since naming is a descriptive function and it is impossible to establish a causal and physicalist realization of the name-relation, it follows that the two highest functions of language—description and argumentation—can neither be causal nor physical. In other words, naming ginger cats “Mike” is not the result of an objective physical truth in which ginger cats must be named thus, but the result of human intent.


6. Interaction


Popper then takes this a step further: He points out that logical relationships are abstractions that do not have physical forms. For example, a person living in house A and who is told that Mike has been adopted into house B, might say “Mike is not here.” This is not merely a response to his five senses having failed to detect Mike, but a deduction based on information he was given, which do not take a physical shape. If people’s actions can be influenced by their logical reasoning and by grasping abstract relationships, then there is no reason to believe that language or any other human action is merely a response to outside stimuli.


7. Conclusion


The author concludes that people who fear being called obscurantists have embarked on an unnecessary project of attempting to separate “objective” language from its “metaphysical” counterpart. However, this duality is in fact a fake problem and attempts at rectifying it are just another form of obscurantism.

Part 2, Chapter 13 Summary: “A Note on the Body-Mind Problem”

Chapter 13 is a reply to three criticisms raised by Professor Wilfrid Sellars regarding Popper’s paper, Language and the Body-Mind Problem, summarized in the previous chapter.


Sellars first raises a question about whether Popper is confusing true facts about physical states (such as “it is a fact that today is rainy”) from quasi-facts not based on physical states (such as “it is a fact we must complete our homework”) when he states that “the statements of physics and of psychology are […] two ways of talking about the same facts” (300). To this, Popper replies that the distinction is unimportant in the context of his use: As long as both physics and psychology use them in the same way, his argument stands.


Next, Sellars challenges the idea that the act of referencing something cannot be defined in terms of behaviors. To this, Popper replies that he has never put forth such an idea in his paper, and that if he did, he recants it completely.


Finally, Sellars claims in his review that Professor Ryles has defended the idea of dualism. Popper believes it is his writing that has given rise to this misunderstanding, and in fact, Professor Ryles does not agree with establishing a duality between language used in physics and in psychology.


Popper reiterates that it is not necessary to separate language into an “objective” system for stating scientific facts and another for “quasi-facts” for philosophy. The mind-body dualism is a fake problem. There are no words objectively correct for describing things with physical appearances, and no words objectively incorrect for describing states or other intangible things. Human intent imparts upon language a descriptive and argumentative function, which can be used, along with logic or reason, to speak of both physical and non-physical things.

Part 2, Chapter 14 Summary: “Self-Reference and Meaning in Ordinary Language”

This creative chapter tells the story of a dialogue between Theaetetus and Socrates. It is a story Popper crafted to illustrate how indirect self-reference in language can be meaningful, despite claims to the contrary.


After a few exchanges, Theaetetus asks Socrates the following question: “What did I say between your last two interruptions, Socrates?” To this, Socrates answers correctly that Theaetetus said, “The very next question which I am going to ask you is an extraordinary one, although expressed in perfectly ordinary language” (304).


Then, Theaetetus asks if Socrates understood the meaning of his question, to which Socrates replies that yes, Theaetetus was referring to something he will ask Socrates shortly. Theaetetus continues: “And what was this question of mine to which my warning referred? Can you repeat it?” Socrates then accurately repeats what Theaetetus said earlier: “What did I say between your last two interruptions, Socrates?”


Finally, Theaetetus asks if Socrates understood his meaning in the last question he asked. Socrates affirms that he obviously understood, since he answered correctly.


This little story demonstrates that indirect self-reference (the warning refers to a future question Theaetetus was about to ask, and the question Theaetetus finally asked referred to the earlier warning he made) can still be properly understood; it is therefore not entirely meaningless.


The story continues to show that even direct self-references need not be paradoxical or meaningless. In fact, the truth or falsity of some statements that directly self-reference can be established by empirical testing or logical reasoning. Socrates asks how this is possible. Theaetetus then offers the following statement: “What I am saying now is meaningful.”


Socrates immediately understands this and explains its logic. The statement Theaetetus just said directly refers to itself. Assuming that Theaetetus’s statement is false, then it can be clearly established that what he just said is actually not meaningful. By clearly establishing the fact that it is false, the statement is proven to be falsifiable, which means it is actually meaningful. This proves that even direct self-reference in statements can be meaningful if they can be used as logical or empirical falsifications.


Theaetetus in the story proposes that any utterance whose meaning can be understood is valuable. Similarly, any question for which an answer can be given must also be meaningful. If meaning is only assigned to utterances that have physical shape or have already been empirically confirmed, then this excludes all hypotheses and conjectures as meaningless absurdities, as they have not yet been proven (or, in this case, falsified). Since it is clearly irrational to stipulate that hypotheses are all meaningless until they are proven, this chapter concludes that self-referring assertions are not merely worthless absurdities.

Part 2, Chapters 11-14 Analysis

This section is an exploration and critique of the project of creating an axiomatic and completely scientific language devoid of meaningless words, which adds a new dimension to The Dilemma of Objective Truth. It begins by exploring the works of philosopher Rudolf Carnap, who has pushed for the creation of a scientific language devoid of meaninglessness. Popper explains that this project stems from a desire to demarcate science, which helps the generation of meaningful knowledge, from pseudo-science, which is founded upon myths and holds little value. Carnap believes language plays an important role in separating meaningful messages from meaningless ones, and this is why the discipline of science will benefit from removing phrases, vocabularies, or syntaxes that impart no meaning.


Popper, however, disagrees with Carnap’s project. He cites mathematician Kurt Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorem to prove that no consistent axiomatic system can be complete within itself, and that no complete set of axioms can prove its own consistency. Popper instead suggests that the perceived meaninglessness of non-scientific disciplines is actually not entirely devoid of use: They can, by virtue of being able to be falsified, provide context and reference for related theories. In other words, this section explores the theme of how to differentiate science from pseudo-science, wherein Popper defends the idea that language is a non-issue in the quest for scientific growth.


In Chapters 12 and 13, Popper cites the work of German linguist Karl Bühler and philosopher Wilfrid Sellars to highlight the four major functions of language and defend their utility in helping the process of reasoning. Bühler argues that language serves three basic purposes, to which Popper adds a fourth. All of these functions exist to facilitate the communication and deliberation of ideas, and they are crucial in the process of falsification because they form the basis of intellectual discussion.


Chapter 14 uses an original story between Theaetetus and Socrates to prove that, on the one hand, language need not be perfect to convey meaning, and on the other hand, even so-called self-referencing statements, which are assumed to hold no logical weight, can be meaningful in conveying a message. Given that language is designed to help communication, and given that communication is essential to falsification, Popper reasons that attempts to construct a perfect language devoid of ostensibly absurd words is a fundamentally misguided project.

blurred text
blurred text
blurred text

Unlock all 83 pages of this Study Guide

Get in-depth, chapter-by-chapter summaries and analysis from our literary experts.

  • Grasp challenging concepts with clear, comprehensive explanations
  • Revisit key plot points and ideas without rereading the book
  • Share impressive insights in classes and book clubs