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Conjectures and Refutations
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Themes
The Importance of Refutation and Criticism
Popper acknowledges that the philosophers of the modern period have emphasized the extraordinarily great explanatory power of science, and that they have debated how the discipline could make so much sense of the physical world. Popper agrees that there is clearly something different about science, since it is often accurate in predicting natural occurrences, which differentiates science from pseudo-science. Popper examines the theories of both the Continental school and English empiricism before asserting his own view: That science succeeds by depending upon refutation and criticism in the quest for determining truth.
The Continental school was led by René Descartes, who popularized rationalism. Rationalism is the belief that the world is logical by nature, which is why it can be understood using human reasoning. The Continental school thus asserts that people can arrive at truths through pure reasoning: Thus, science, by virtue of making use of rationality, can understand nature better than other, less-rational disciplines.
By contrast, the English empirical school argues that only experience can lead to the acquisition of knowledge. In other words, just thinking about something is not enough—people must go out, live in the world, and observe it in order to understand it. People can make sense of the world because they have five senses which can receive signals from their environment, and it is by processing this information that they can discover truths. Science has superior predictable power because other fields do not require as rigorous an observation of physical phenomena.
Popper is not satisfied with either explanation. He argues that there is no reason to assume the universe is logical by nature; he also denies it is reasonable to think that the human senses are objective sources of truth. Though on the surface they look like opposites, the Continental and English schools are actually similar in their fundamental belief that the human mind and body are capable of discerning truths. Both tend to promote the idea that, with sound logical reasoning, empirical testing, and confirmation of a theory being true, the theory must then really reflect reality.
Popper proposes to turn this thinking around: Rather than obsess over the superiority of pure reasoning or empirical observation, as they can both be assumed to be flawed attempts at probing reality, it is much more reliable to look to falsifications as the bedrock of scientific thought. Whether a theory reflects an objective reality or not is hard to determine, but it is much easier to see when it does not match that reality. Science, then, differs itself from pseudo-science because it is not looking only for confirmations, but for falsifications. It encourages creative thinking, creates complex and content-rich predictions, and welcomes refutation and criticism. It uses a process of trial-and-error to probe ever deeper into a problem, replacing old, incomplete theories with new, more complex ones.
Refutation and criticism are therefore what differentiates a science from a superstition. Whereas horoscopes attempt to never be false by making their predictions as generalized and vague as possible, scientific theories aim at the opposite: They are precise, complex, content-rich, risky, and therefore more valuable whenever they pass rigorous testing. It is precisely this attitude of welcoming refutation that keeps science ever-progressing: It prevents people from doggedly looking for confirmations for their theories, instead encouraging ambitious new insights into a problem.
The Dilemma of Objective Truth
As an objectivist and rationalist, Popper reveals throughout Conjectures and Refutations that he is deeply critical of relativism and nihilism, two schools of thought that are antagonistic towards the concept of objective truth. Additionally, Popper is also weary of instrumentalism, which avoids the conversation about truth altogether by professing that the purpose of science is to help humanity accomplish goals rather than discuss the existence of what constitutes “truth.” Popper posits his own solution: He acknowledges the dilemma of objective truth, but also asserts that the possibility of objective truth is necessary for scientific progress.
Popper repeatedly argues that there can be no scientific progress without assuming the existence of an objective truth. He defends his point by showing that, without objectivity, even basic logical inferences cannot be made. For example, in the case of relativism, reality is the same as what people perceive it to be, and so if two people see the same object differently, this does not constitute a contradiction. Each of their perceptions is equally correct and both reflect reality. This amounts to claiming that a statement y and its opposite, non-y, can both be true at the same time. If this is indeed the case, then even basic inferences such as “If y is true, then z is false” no longer retain any meaning, because it is impossible to ascertain the truth of y, and it is thus impossible to conclude anything about z. Under an objective system where if y is true then non-y must be false, knowing that y is true would allow for a confident conclusion that z is false. Similarly, under this objective system, if y is false, then non-y and z must be true. However, if y and non-y can both be true at the same time, there can be no conclusions made for z. Popper therefore concludes that even the most basic rules of logical inference no longer retain any meaning if the truth of its premises cannot be ascertained.
Science cannot progress if logic breaks down, which is why Popper critiques both the relativist and nihilistic perspectives. Apart from the logical lacunae they create, Popper also finds the way they evade criticism to be problematic. Relativism and the Hegelian dialectic both escape every attempt at refuting them by arguing that, when their predictions are seemingly wrong, it is not because they are truly wrong, but because of a difference in perspective or a lack of sufficient information. Since every situation can be stretched to fit the relativist and dialectical narratives, they end up as irrefutable theories. For Popper, any theory that claims to be universally applicable and never wrong is fundamentally unscientific.
Popper therefore concludes that rationalism and objectivism, which allow for basic logical reasoning and can tolerate criticism, are the only theories that encourage scientific growth. Though there is no way to definitely prove the existence of an objective truth, Popper argues that the scientific process is one that assumes its existence, and which tries to approximate it through trial and error.
The Role of Tradition and Creativity in Science
Throughout Conjectures and Refutations, Popper examines some of the assumptions surrounding the scientific process. In particular, he addresses the emphasis often placed on empirical observation. While Popper does not dispute that empirical observation is a part of science, he argues that it is insufficient on its own—instead, tradition and creativity also play an important role in the scientific process.
Popper explains that philosophers have often thought that science differentiates itself from every other discipline by its extensive use of empirical observation. Science has cultivated a unique ability to gain insight into the world because it encourages people to test their theories in practice, and to discern the true nature of things. This line of reasoning suggests that if people only observe nature carefully, truths will inevitably begin to reveal themselves. In comparison, philosophy and other inexact sciences rely too much on pure reasoning, neglecting to pay attention to physical phenomena and material things. They are but abstract conjectures without form, and as such, they cannot reflect reality the same way as empirical observation does.
Popper does not believe this line of reasoning to be true. He asserts that empirical observation is neither infallible nor objective: It relies on the human senses and requires human intention. For example, simply asking for someone to “observe!” is not enough to guide them as to what they should be paying attention to, and nature will not provide answers automatically. Empirical observation, then, requires guidance and intention, as people must know what they are looking for before they can begin guessing where to find it. Nature plays but a passive role in this scenario. Thus, it cannot be said that empirical observation is at the core of science. Popper asserts that, since pure reasoning is equally flawed, it is also not the sole foundation of science.
Instead, Popper argues that creativity and tradition play a large role in the scientific process. Using the Copernican Revolution as an example, he points out that Copernicus did not have the tools necessary to go to space and observe the earth’s placement on the solar system empirically. His theory was therefore founded on a hunch, fueled by his dissatisfaction with existing explanations about the earth’s centrality in the solar system. Similarly, the Newtonian and Einsteinian Revolutions were not born out of empirical observation either, as molecules, atoms, and forces hardly take the shape of easily-observable objects. Both Newton and Einstein used creativity, luck, and reasoning to formulate their theories, which in turn became foundational for further advancements in their fields.
As Popper emphasizes, these great scientific revolutions were the result of creative thinking and the willingness to build upon—and improve—scientific traditions. They were accepted as true because they made ambitious predictions, contained high informational content, and were easily testable. Popper thus concludes that neither empiricism nor pure reasoning are sufficient for real scientific progress, as creativity and tradition are also essential components.
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