Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Evaluate Taleb’s position toward the media, specifically financial commentators both in print and on television. What is his rationale for taking such a decisive position? Do you share his view? Why or why not?

Taleb appreciates literature and poetry. He says, “All my life I have suffered the conflict between my love of literature and poetry and my profound allergy to most teachers of literature and ‘critics’” (27). Based on the opinions and philosophies Taleb expresses elsewhere in the book, how do you interpret this statement?

Analyze Taleb’s outlook on MBAs. Consider that he holds that same degree. Why does he take such an antagonistic view to this degree? What reasoning does he offer? Do you agree with him? Why or why not?

The book deals primarily with probability and the ways randomness can disrupt predictive models. However, it includes research and content from across a wide variety of scientific and intellectual disciplines. Does this add depth to the text or does it cause distraction? To what degree? Explain.

Consider the following claim: “But we are not sure that the world we live in is well charted” (145). What does Taleb mean by this? Do you agree or disagree? Why or why not?

Taleb argues that people often make the mistake of assuming that because something has never happened before, we can deduce that it is unlikely it will happen now. What are the logical flaws in this statement? How does this concept inform Taleb’s approach to trading?

In what ways have your own views toward the nature of luck and randomness changed after reading the book?

What is the moral of the story of Nero Tulip’s death in the Epilogue? Why do you think Taleb concludes the book in this fashion?