How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

The book argues that debt crises follow a predictable sequence of phases. To what extent does this mechanistic view of economics leave room for human agency, leadership, and moral responsibility? Does any institution or individual have more power to affect the economy than the others?

In what ways does How Countries Go Broke function as both an economic treatise and a warning about governance? How does Dalio’s tone and use of historical examples position the reader as both analyst and participant in unfolding cycles?

Examine Dalio’s use of medical metaphors—such as the “heart attack” for short-term shocks and the “chronic illness” for long-term risks. How do these figurative choices shape accessibility and reader engagement?

Compare Dalio’s treatment of the United States’ current debt trajectory with his analyses of earlier reserve-currency declines (e.g., Britain and the Netherlands). What patterns emerge, and what distinguishes the present case?

Dalio integrates data tables, models, and narrative argument throughout the book. How do these elements affect the book’s credibility and clarity? Does the inclusion of visual and quantitative material enhance or hinder comprehension?

Explore the tension between empirical modeling and moral judgment in Dalio’s writing. Does his “mechanistic” worldview risk reducing human conflict, ideology, or ethics to data points?

How does Dalio’s treatment of the U.S.-China rivalry extend beyond economics into questions of political culture and social cohesion? What underlying assumptions about governance and values inform his outlook?

Dalio identifies education, cooperation, and innovation as forces that sustain healthy systems. Discuss how his emphasis on these “soft” variables challenges traditional economic determinism.