If You Believe

In July 1894, a charismatic bare-knuckle fighter known as Mad Dog wins a bout in Texas. His promoter, Sneaky Joe, pays him his winnings, which Mad Dog accepts with a carefree attitude. He owns only what he can carry and prefers a transient lifestyle with easy women who expect nothing from him. After the fight, a beautiful woman whose name he cannot recall greets him, and they leave together.

By September, Mad Dog is a homeless drifter jumping from a train in Washington State. He writes articles about poverty but needs work to survive the coming winter. In a diner in Lonesome Creek, he finds an ad for a handyman at Epoch Farm, placed by Professor Erasmus Throckmorton, known as Rass. The promise of "good food and clean sheets" entices him. Unbeknownst to Mad Dog, a teenage boy named Jacob "Jake" Vanderstay is secretly following him, afraid to confront him but driven by a personal fantasy. At the farm, 34-year-old Mariah Throckmorton, Rass's orderly and anxious daughter, meticulously cleans her father's study. When she sees Mad Dog approaching Rass in the yard, she fears for her father's safety, grabs a shotgun, and rushes outside, knocking Mad Dog unconscious with the butt of the weapon just as Rass hires him.

Mariah argues with her father about hiring the stranger, but Rass insists, noting it has been eight months since her mother's death and that Mariah needs to move on. Mad Dog reminds Mariah of a "shiftless, lazy loser" from her past named Stephen, and she becomes determined to get rid of him. She assigns Mad Dog the brutal task of cracking walnuts and later offers him sixteen dollars to leave. Her challenge, however, makes him resolve to stay. Rass invites Mad Dog to supper, where Mad Dog reveals his mother is dead and his father abandoned him. Later, Mariah is haunted by the sight of the farm's white picket fence, a psychological barrier tied to a past trauma from when she ran away at sixteen. Meanwhile, Jake hides in the farm's barn, stealing food and feeling desperately lonely.

Rass reflects on his true motive for placing the ad, which was to find a husband for Mariah, as he worries about her isolation. Mariah continues her efforts to drive Mad Dog away by making him clean the pigpen and sort apples by color, a needlessly complicated task. Their dynamic shifts when they have a conversation about honesty, and Mad Dog makes her laugh for the first time in years. Rass, watching from his late wife Greta's grave, is overjoyed. Mad Dog secretly follows Mariah to her private swimming spot and is captivated by her transformation from a rigid spinster into a sensual "wood sprite," becoming determined to uncover her secrets. Rass discovers Jake hiding in the barn and offers him a job as his assistant, allowing the boy to stay in secret.

Clean-shaven and more direct, Mad Dog tells Mariah he wants to get to know her, which frightens her. She realizes she is attracted to him but resolves to protect her heart. During their Sunday "church" at Greta's grave, Mariah becomes distressed by a small, unmarked patch of grass and flees. In her room, she is overwhelmed by painful memories of her infant son, Thomas. Hearing her cry, Mad Dog goes to her room and comforts her by sharing that his own mother died on Christmas Eve. He asks her for a walk, but she has a panic attack when he opens the front gate, revealing her inability to leave the farm. Rass later brings Jake to the house, and Mariah is stunned by the boy's resemblance to Thomas. Jake's first official meeting with Mad Dog is awkward and dismissive. To foster a connection between Mad Dog and Mariah, Rass orchestrates a poker game, ensuring they win and must go fishing together at dawn.

While fishing, the sexual tension between Mariah and Mad Dog escalates, and he briefly kisses her. Later, Mariah bonds with Jake, cutting his hair and feeling a maternal connection. In the orchard, Mad Dog admits his "sin" is that he always leaves, while Mariah confesses she was once hurt by a man like him, one who she fears will also leave. Mad Dog proposes a no-strings-attached affair. He also begins teaching Jake how to fight. After Rass arranges to be away from the farm, Mad Dog searches Mariah's room and finds a baby blanket and rattle. Mariah, in turn, discovers Mad Dog's notebooks and is moved by his poignant articles on poverty. That night, their mutual desire culminates in a passionate encounter in the bunkhouse, and the experience leaves Mariah feeling liberated.

Soon after, Rass collapses from a stroke. As Mad Dog and Jake rush him to the doctor, Mariah's phobia paralyzes her, and she is unable to open the gate or leave the farm. The doctor informs them that Rass is in a coma and will not recover. Mad Dog promises to take care of Mariah. They bring Rass home, where he awakens briefly to say his goodbyes, telling Mariah he loves her and making Jake promise to tell Mad Dog the truth about his parentage. Rass then passes away. At the funeral, Mariah is numb, unable to cry or accept comfort from anyone.

In the days that follow, Mariah sinks into a deep depression. Desperate to help, Mad Dog gets her drunk on tequila, promising it will help her cry, and takes her to the family gravesite. There, Mariah finally has a cathartic breakdown. She confesses that the unmarked grave belongs to her son, Thomas, who was born prematurely and died. She says goodbye to her parents and her son for the first time. The next morning, Mariah tells Mad Dog she loves him and asks him to stay, but he says he cannot. Jake then reveals that he is Mad Dog's son. Shocked, Mad Dog asks Jake to leave with him, but Jake refuses, choosing to stay with Mariah. Feeling he will only cause more pain, Mad Dog says a difficult goodbye to both of them and leaves the farm.

Weeks later, Mad Dog is miserable on the rails, unable to forget Mariah and Jake. On Christmas night, sitting alone in a saloon, he realizes he has found a home and decides to return. Back at the farm, Jake's Christmas present to Mariah is tearing down the picket fence, a gesture that gives her hope she can overcome her fear. Mad Dog arrives and reunites with Jake, apologizing and embracing his role as a father. He then finds Mariah, who is initially cold and afraid to trust him again. He tells her he is back to stay, has secured a writing job, and wants them to be a family, proposing. Though she hesitates, he vows to propose every day until she trusts him. Realizing she is strong enough to risk her heart, Mariah accepts, and they embrace.