A prologue set in 1959 establishes the novel's central premise: No American government has been willing to address birth control as a political issue, and unchecked population growth is driving the nation toward resource collapse. By Monday, August 9, 1999, New York City holds 35 million people, its natural landscape long destroyed, its buildings rising ever higher to accommodate a density unmatched in human history.
Detective Andy Rusch, a 30-year-old police officer, wakes in his sweltering half-room on Twenty-fifth Street, which he shares with Solomon Kahn, a 75-year-old retired mechanic who pedals a stationary bicycle to power their small refrigerator. They eat margarine on weedcrackers and drink brownish water from a nearly empty wall tank. A callboy summons Andy to report early: Senior citizens calling themselves the Eldsters are rallying in Union Square to protest inadequate Welfare payments. At the corner water point, a patrolman secretly fills Andy's containers; the city's reservoirs are dangerously low from drought and sabotage by upstate farmers.
At Union Square, the rally is disrupted when a nearby department store announces a flash sale of soylent steaks, a processed soy-and-lentil food. A TV reporter broadcasts the news, drawing a stampede that shatters a plate-glass window and triggers looting. Andy helps contain the chaos until riot trucks arrive.
Billy Chung, an 18-year-old Taiwanese-American boy, escapes the riot with a stolen box of soylent steaks. Billy lives with his family in Shiptown, a waterfront district of decommissioned ships housing refugees from Formosa. He sells most of the steaks and uses the money to secure a messenger job at Western Union. That evening, his first delivery takes him to Chelsea Park, a fortress-like luxury complex ringed by a moat, where Michael O'Brien lives. O'Brien, a hulking man with a past in dockside rackets turned political fixing, opens his telegram while Billy waits. Through an open door, Billy glimpses a young red-haired woman lying unclothed on a bed. As he leaves, he notices a single lock on the inner door, a disconnected burglar alarm, and an unprotected basement window, on which he draws a heart in the dust to mark it from outside.
The woman is Shirl Greene, O'Brien's 23-year-old live-in girlfriend. Her daily routine reveals extreme scarcity: She shops for seaweed crackers and soymilk at inflated prices under the protection of her bodyguard, Tab Fielding, and buys a half pound of beef for nearly $28 from an underground meatlegger. When she and Tab return to the apartment, they find the inner door jimmied open.
Billy had hidden in the cellar overnight and, believing the apartment empty, broke in with a sharpened tire iron. He ransacked the bedroom, but O'Brien emerged from the bathroom and charged him. Cornered, Billy swung the tire iron and struck O'Brien in the temple, killing him instantly. He fled through the service entrance but left behind the murder weapon and everything else.
Andy is assigned to investigate. He tells Shirl frankly that murders like this rarely get investigated; without witnesses or known suspects, the police lack the resources. After Andy leaves, Tab takes cash from O'Brien's wallet and gives it to Shirl, telling her she will need it.
The case would have died there, but O'Brien had powerful political connections. Judge Santini, a figure tied to organized crime, reports the killing at a syndicate meeting. Santini notes the heart on the cellar window, explaining that
cuore is Italian for "heart," raising suspicion that Nick Cuore, a Newark racketeer, ordered the killing. The syndicate pressures the police commissioner, and Andy's lieutenant, Grassioli, assigns Andy to the case full time.
Andy discovers the burglar alarm had been disconnected eight days before the murder and traces every visitor during that window, learning from the Western Union dispatcher about a Chinese messenger boy who worked one day and never returned. In the evenings, Andy and Shirl grow close, sharing their backgrounds and becoming lovers. With August ending and O'Brien's sister set to claim the apartment, Andy asks Shirl to move in with him. She accepts.
Shirl wins over Sol with shared
kofee, a coffee substitute, and two cigars saved from O'Brien's supply. They settle into a fragile domestic rhythm, disrupted when Andy brings a classified warning to fill every water container they own: Brooklyn's wells have gone salt, farmers have destroyed the aqueduct, and the city faces a severe water crisis. Meanwhile, Andy's partner, Detective Steve Kulozik, suggests cross-referencing the murder weapon fingerprints against records from a 1972 mass fingerprinting of Shiptown residents. Andy matches the prints to Billy Chung, but when police raid the ship where Billy's family lives, Billy evades capture and disappears.
By October, chronic shortages have ground the city down. Shirl waits in long lines for reduced rations and is nearly robbed at knifepoint. Andy works double shifts and comes home exhausted; their arguments grow sharper. The city erupts in food riots after Welfare stations close because warehouses are nearly empty. When Andy returns home from the violence, Shirl is gone. She comes back the next morning and admits she spent the night with another man, saying bitterly that she had no other way to pay for dinner. She challenges whether her arrangement with Andy is fundamentally different from her past kept relationships.
Sol attends a rally supporting the Emergency Bill, legislation to legalize birth-control clinics. A street fight breaks out and Sol is knocked down, breaking his hip. Bedridden, he develops pneumonia. Andy rushes to Bellevue Hospital for antibiotics but finds the facility overwhelmed; only children are receiving medication. Sol dies alone one evening while Shirl sits on the other side of the partition.
During these months, Billy has survived in the abandoned Brooklyn Navy Yard with Peter, a gaunt former priest who believes the world will end on New Year's Day 2000. They sell rainwater from a flooded ship compartment until violent squatters drive them out, forcing them back to Manhattan.
The morning after Sol's death, Tab arrives at Andy's door escorting a man with a squat-order, a court document entitling his family to claim vacant living space. The Belicher family swarms into Sol's room, and Andy is legally powerless to stop them. Constant noise and filth through the thin partition accelerate the collapse of Andy and Shirl's relationship. When Andy insists on going out one snowy night to follow a lead on Billy, Shirl warns she may not be there when he returns.
At the Chung family's ship, Billy pulls a knife and advances. Andy aims for his leg, but Billy stumbles; the bullet strikes his temple, killing him, the same wound that killed O'Brien. Andy returns home after midnight to find Shirl's clothes and suitcases gone.
The political aftermath is bitter. The syndicate confirms Cuore was never involved, and the figures who pressured the investigation lose interest. An assistant commissioner accuses Andy of bias against Chinese New Yorkers. Andy accepts a six-month demotion to uniform to protect his precinct.
On New Year's Eve, Andy patrols Times Square in uniform as a sparse crowd watches headlines scroll across a giant screen. Steve tells Andy he has quit the force for a job upstate. At midnight, Andy encounters Peter raving about the millennium. Peter pulls away, shouting whether the world can go on like this for another thousand years, then vanishes. Moments later, Andy glimpses Shirl emerging from the Hotel Astor in evening wear, laughing with companions. She climbs into a pedicab and is gone without seeing him. The final headlines announce the United States population has reached 344 million. Andy turns away and walks alone into the falling snow.