The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End

Neil Howe

62 pages 2-hour read

Neil Howe

The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2023

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Index of Terms

Crisis (Fourth Turning)

A Crisis is a decisive era of secular upheaval that recurs in Anglo-American history approximately every 80 to 100 years. Lasting about a generation, it functions as the saeculum’s “winter” season, “a decisive era of secular upheaval” in which a decaying civic order is replaced by a new one (12). Howe identifies this era as the central subject of the book, arguing that the US entered its current Crisis, which he terms the “Millennial Crisis,” with the financial crash of 2008. These periods are characterized by a heightened sense of national peril, rising public engagement, and extreme partisanship as society mobilizes to overcome challenges once thought insurmountable.


Historically, these turnings have been commensurate with the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the dual emergencies of the Great Depression and WWII. During a Crisis, the social mood shifts from individualism toward a renewed sense of community, and citizens become more trusting of leadership and more willing to accept public sacrifice. Howe projects that the current Millennial Crisis, having begun in 2008, has roughly another decade to run. He posits that it will culminate in a great national trial that will fundamentally reshape American institutions and establish a new social contract, setting the stage for the next First Turning, or High.

Ekpyrosis

“Ekpyrosis” is a term drawn from Stoic philosophy, originally referring to a great conflagration that ends one cosmic cycle and begins another. Howe uses the term to describe the climactic years of a Fourth Turning. This phase represents the moment of maximum danger and transformative potential, when the social, political, and economic pressures that have been building throughout the Crisis converge into a decisive national trial: “[T]he ‘spirit of America’ comes once a saeculum, accompanying what the ancients called Ekpyrosis, nature’s fiery moment of death and discontinuity” (187). During this period, events move at maximum speed, compelling a society to confront its existential challenges and forge a new consensus through extraordinary collective effort. This climactic test, often involving a major war or internal revolution, completes the destruction of the old, decaying order and makes way for the birth of a new saeculum. According to the book’s timeline, the Ekpyrosis of the current Millennial Crisis has not yet arrived.

Generational Archetypes (Prophet, Nomad, Hero, Artist)

Generational archetypes are the four recurring societal personas—Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist—that Howe identifies as the primary drivers of the saecular cycle. Each archetype is defined by the historical turning that its members experience during childhood and young adulthood. In turn, as these generations age through the phases of life, their collective personalities shape the mood and direction of subsequent turnings. The author explains that “[p]ropelling this cycle are social generations, of roughly the same length as a turning, which are both shaped by these turnings in their youth and later shape these turnings as midlife leaders and parents” (13). This mechanism provides the causal engine for the theory, explaining why the seasons of history follow a regular and predictable rhythm.


The four archetypes always appear in the same order. A Prophet generation (e.g., Boomers) grows up as indulged post-Crisis children and comes of age during a spiritual Awakening. A Nomad generation (e.g., Gen X) grows up under-protected during an Awakening and comes of age in a cynical post-Awakening world. A Hero generation (e.g., Millennials) is raised as protected children and comes of age as team-oriented builders during a Crisis. Finally, an Artist generation (e.g., the Silent Generation or today’s Homelanders/Gen Z) is overprotected during a Crisis and comes of age as sensitive and conformist adults in a post-Crisis High. The unique constellation of these four archetypes in different phases of life gives each turning its characteristic social mood.

Linear Time

Linear time is the modern Western, teleological conception of history as a narrative of steady social and technological progress. Howe presents this view as a flawed paradigm that contrasts sharply with the cyclical time that dominated most ancient and traditional societies. For modern societies, especially the US, the belief in linear progress obscures the recurring, seasonal patterns of the saeculum and makes each societal shift feel unprecedented. As Howe notes, “Modern believers in linear time have abandoned such habits of natural readjustment. And they have done so eagerly” (33). This abandonment of cyclical thinking, he argues, does not eliminate cycles but rather makes society more susceptible to their influence. By disabling their ability to adapt to natural rhythms, modern societies have generated new and more consequential social cycles, from business fluctuations to the long waves of the saeculum itself. Howe posits that the society that most fervently believes in linear progress, the US, is ironically the one most powerfully governed by the cyclical dynamic of generations and turnings.

Saeculum

The saeculum is the foundational unit of Howe’s cyclical theory of history, representing a full cycle of four seasons, or “turnings.” Its duration corresponds to that of a long human life, roughly 80 to 100 years. Howe traces the term to the ancient Etruscans and Romans, for whom it denoted a natural century and was used to measure historical epochs. In Howe’s framework, this cycle provides the master rhythm of modern history, with each saeculum marking the birth, maturation, decay, and rebirth of a society’s institutional and civic life.


Each saeculum is composed of four turnings: a First Turning (High), a Second Turning (Awakening), a Third Turning (Unraveling), and a Fourth Turning (Crisis). The transition from one saeculum to the next occurs at the end of the Crisis, when a great upheaval destroys the old order and forges a new one. The book argues that Anglo-American history has completed several of these cycles and is currently in the late stages of the Millennial saeculum, which began with the post-WWII “American High” and is set to conclude with the resolution of the current Millennial Crisis. The cycle is propelled by the succession of generational archetypes, whose aging process drives the shifts in social mood.

Turnings (High, Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis)

The turnings are the four distinct historical eras, or “seasons,” that compose one saeculum. While the Fourth Turning is a Crisis, the three preceding turnings set the stage for it by establishing and then eroding a civic order. Each lasts approximately one generation, or about 20 to 25 years, and is characterized by a unique social mood. The First Turning, or High, is the “spring” season that follows a Crisis. It is an upbeat era defined by strengthening institutions, a powerful sense of community, and social conformity. For the current saeculum, this was the “American High” (roughly 1946-1964), an age of prosperity and consensus. The Second Turning, or Awakening, is the “summer” season, a passionate period of spiritual upheaval when a new values regime attacks the established civic order. This was the “Consciousness Revolution” (1964-1984), when youth-led movements challenged mainstream institutions and norms.


The Third Turning, or Unraveling, is the “autumn” season that directly precedes a Crisis. It is a downcast era of strengthening individualism, weakening institutions, and cultural fragmentation. Howe identifies the period of the “Culture Wars” (1984-2008) as the most recent Unraveling, an era marked by civic drift and a growing sense of foreboding. Together, these three turnings trace the arc of a society’s institutional life from construction (High) to deconstruction (Awakening and Unraveling), creating the conditions of decay and civic need that make the subsequent Crisis both necessary and inevitable.

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