On VJ Day (August 15, 1945), the US remained mobilized despite peace. Economists predicted depression and birthrate decline, but these fears proved unfounded. Veterans returned peacefully, eager to marry and settle. By Christmas 1945, unemployment was one-tenth of projections. A fertility boom began with babies conceived on VJ night, continuing until President John F. Kennedy’s assassination in late 1963.

This era, bracketed by VJ Day and Kennedy’s death, became the “American High”—the First Turning of the Millennial saeculum. Early years were marked by Cold War paranoia; the Eisenhower presidency brought complacency. Seniors today remember the High as an era of effective laws, strong families, and low crime. The middle class expanded, inequality declined, and worker productivity grew rapidly. British Prime Minister Winston Churchill declared that the US stood “at the summit of the world” (406).

Suburbia became the era’s monument. Standardized tastes fostered equality and teamwork. Political partisanship declined as Democrats accommodated big business and Republicans accepted the New Deal. The High drew criticism for materialism and conformity, yet Americans felt the era was modern. During today’s Crisis, appreciation for the High’s strengths is rising.

Six First-Turning Highs span Anglo-American history from 1487 to 1964. All were postwar eras of solidarity featuring rising unity, civic participation, single-party dominance, robust economic expansion, massive infrastructure projects, declining inequality, and family-oriented life with distinct gender roles. Yet these eras attracted criticism for materialism. A protest led by the coming-of-age Prophet archetype ultimately brought each High to a close, initiating the Second-Turning Awakening.

The next First Turning will likely begin around 2033 and last until 2056. Past Anglo-American Fourth Turnings resolved successfully, though the Crisis’s outcome is uncertain.

Assuming successful resolution, the new era will feature overwhelming national unity. Debate will focus on means, not ends. Rebuilding will be global, with the US providing leadership. The US and allies may create institutions guaranteeing collective security through unprecedented enforcement. However, the early post-Crisis atmosphere may be fraught with paranoia, as it has been in previous saecula.

By the 2040s, the national mood will shift toward confidence. The economy will grow faster after Crisis-era overhauls, delivering dramatically higher living standards primarily benefiting an enlarged middle class. Volunteering and civic participation will flourish. Unions will revive. A postwar baby boom will arise. Public policy will support families, though renewed focus on family will widen the gender gap.

By the mid-2050s, cities will be redesigned for order and sociability. Society will achieve marvels in medicine, technology, and climate control. Americans may develop collective hubris. Yet as satisfaction swells, critics will see dark undersides—neighborhoods displaced, liberties violated, and catastrophes lurking.

This optimistic sketch assumes that the Crisis resolves successfully. At the darkest end, war triggering nuclear exchange could occur. Another unsuccessful outcome would leave the US defeated, exhausted, or politically degraded. Yet in most scenarios, social mood would be similar to other First Turning: The era following failure would prioritize community and rebuilding. The saeculum’s seasons are durable, driven forward by generational aging momentum.

At the next First Turning’s beginning in 2033, the G.I. Generation will number only a few thousand and soon be gone entirely. The Silent Generation will enter with 3 million members recalling the Crisis with disappointment. The 42 million Boomers will still be vocal, but voters will soon turn to pragmatic Xers. As Boomers decline, their individualism will be subtracted from the social mood. Generation X (52-72 in 2033) will comprise the era’s dominant senior leaders—pragmatic, focused on tangible results, and distrustful of large systems. Their most important contribution will be accepting benefit cuts and higher taxes to enable investment in the young. Millennials (28-51 in 2033) will dominate midlife roles, defining the era’s social mood with sociability, teamwork, and optimism. Under Millennial leadership, community will become all-encompassing, enabling stunning collective achievements. Homelanders (4-27 in 2033) will largely play bystander roles early, serving as expert technicians implementing Millennials’ visions. Late in the era, they’ll sense frustration and raise questions about civic gigantism’s human cost. New Prophets (born 2030-2052) won’t recall national threats, basking in security and raised to want nothing. Contemplating a seemingly perfected world, they’ll wonder what to do with their lives.

As the First Turning ends, Millennial parents will suppose that the answer is self-evident, as has every earlier generation of leaders at a First Turning’s end—and every time, they were wrong. In the 1730s, they ignored teenagers like Jonathan Edwards. In the early 1960s, G.I.s supposed that Boomers would design better vehicles and colonize planets. Even the smartest among them didn’t know that a Second Turning was ready to begin. From the late 2050s into the 2070s, the US will be engulfed in the next Awakening, triggered by New Prophets’ defiance. Eventually, Millennials will admit defeat. Later, by the 2080s and 2090s, the US will enter another Unraveling. Around 2100, the next Fourth Turning will begin.