Published in 2023, Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning Is Here is a work of macro-history and social theory that serves as a sequel to his influential 1997 book, The Fourth Turning, which was coauthored with the late William Strauss. A New York Times bestseller, the book argues that the United States is in the midst of a “Fourth Turning,” a generation-long period of “Crisis” that began with the 2008 financial crash. Howe posits that current political polarization, institutional decay, and social unrest are predictable features of this era. Drawing on centuries of Anglo-American history, he forecasts that this Crisis will culminate in a great national trial over the next decade, which will dismantle the old civic order and forge a new one by the early 2030s.

The book’s argument is built on several key themes. Its central thesis presents The Cyclical Nature of History, contending that modern societies move through a repeating four-part cycle, or saeculum, of growth, decay, and renewal. This cycle is driven by Generational Archetypes as Engines of Change, with four recurring social personas—Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist—whose aging process predictably shifts the collective mood. Finally, the theory frames Crisis as a Catalyst for National Mobilization, a necessary, if tumultuous, period that forces a society to confront its deepest structural problems and renew its sense of collective purpose.

This guide refers to the 2023 hardcover edition published by Simon & Schuster.

Summary

Howe argues that the US is in a period of transition marked by a steep decline in public trust. The global financial crisis and the pandemic have exposed a decaying system. Short-term policy fixes, like massive deficit spending, have exacerbated long-term problems such as widening inequality; an epidemic of “deaths of despair” among middle-aged, lower-income Americans; and declining generational mobility for anyone born after 1960. A stark generational contrast has emerged. Older generations, raised in abundance, defend a static political system, while younger generations, raised in an era of “precarity,” are increasingly disillusioned with a democracy they view as decrepit and incapable of fulfilling its promises.

Howe explains this apparent decline as part of his cyclical theory of history. He claims that modern Anglo-American society moves through a cycle of four “turnings,” analogous to the four seasons, each lasting about two decades. Together, they form a “saeculum,” a period of 80 to 100 years, analogous to a long human life. The First Turning is a “High,” an era of strong institutions. The Second Turning is an “Awakening,” a period of cultural upheaval. The Third Turning is an “Unraveling,” an era of strong individualism and weak institutions. The Fourth Turning is a “Crisis,” an era of upheaval that replaces the old civic order. The most recent Unraveling, the “Culture Wars,” began in 1984 and ended with the 2008 financial crisis, which inaugurated the current Fourth Turning, the “Millennial Crisis.” This cycle is propelled by four recurring generational archetypes: the moralistic Prophet, the pragmatic Nomad, the civic-minded Hero, and the sensitive Artist. Historical parallels show that previous Unraveling eras, like the 1920s and 1850s, were followed by monumental Crises like the Great Depression/World War II and the Civil War. Howe argues that the current Crisis began in 2008 and will run until about 2030, culminating in a great national challenge that will require immense public sacrifice but also offers an opportunity for renewal.

Howe argues that his four-season rhythm is exceptionally regular in Anglo-American history, with major Crises, such as the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression/WWII, occurring roughly one long lifetime apart. Midway between them fall major Awakenings, like the Great Awakening of the 1740s and the “Consciousness Revolution” of the 1960s.

Howe presents generations as the engines of this cycle. They are formed when a “Great Event,” like a Crisis or an Awakening, leaves a distinct imprint on a peer group according to their phase of life, which includes childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood. A generation is identified by its common location in history, its shared beliefs and behaviors, and its members’ perception of commonality. This process creates the four recurring archetypes, Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist, whose sequence is driven by a cross-generational “shadow” dynamic where each new generation is shaped to complement a previous generation.

Howe claims that the American generational cycle originated in 15th-century England and was carried to the “New World,” where it has shaped history with remarkable regularity. The cycle aligns with numerous other long-term rhythms in American society, including political realignments, foreign-policy moods of “introversion” and “extraversion,” economic cycles, trends in inequality, and cycles of community versus individualism. The saeculum is best understood as a complex system that is not deterministic but channels society’s response to random events. The US Civil War represents the cycle’s only major anomaly. Howe argues that the saeculum is becoming a global phenomenon, with many nations now synchronized to a similar generational clock, setting the stage for a global Millennial Crisis.

The 2016 election of Donald Trump, which polarized the nation into two irreconcilable camps, has tipped the US toward this Crisis. The nation is now gripped by deep pessimism about its future. Howe projects that this Crisis will reach a climax and resolution by the early 2030s. The path to this climax will likely be defined by one of three stressors: another severe financial crash, a civil war, or a great-power war against an authoritarian axis led by China and Russia. Whatever the specific trigger, the climax will involve an existential struggle that requires total mobilization and leads to profound transformation.

After the Crisis resolves around 2033, a new saeculum will be born, beginning with a First Turning, or High, projected to last until the mid-2050s. Like the post-WWII era, this will be a period of renewed national unity, institutional strength, and middle-class prosperity. Society will focus on rebuilding and consolidating the new civic order. A new, indulged generation of children will be born, who will grow up in this era of security and conformity. Eventually, they will come of age to question the spiritual vacuity of the High, triggering the next Awakening in the 2050s and 2060s and continuing the cycle.

The book concludes by framing the saeculum as a necessary, restorative process. By understanding the seasons of history and their corresponding generational roles, society can better navigate the trials of a Fourth Turning. While modern societies believe in linear progress, they are driven by the cyclical rhythm of generations. This rhythm connects individuals to their ancestors and to posterity, offering a pattern that can provide guidance through the current winter season and toward a national rebirth.