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In the introduction to this book, Polybius suggests that his work may only appeal to specific readers who enjoy strict accounts of history with a focus on political and military events. Rather than relying on myths and origin stories like his predecessors in the field, the Greek historian hopes to outline how power is gained and maintained.
In this book, he explores his themes through the actions of the Carthaginian general Hannibal. In a conflict between the Romans and the Carthaginians at Capua, Hannibal soon realized that he would not be able to win against the Romans with force alone. He decided to try something bold: He led his armies in a march directly on Rome. Hannibal instructed his armies to leave their fires burning in Campania. They then snuck out at night, advancing closer to Rome than they ever had before. This psychological strategy was highly effective at panicking Romans inside the city. However, fortune was on Rome’s side as a new legion arrived at the city at the same time as Hannibal’s attack.
Realizing he could not take the city, Hannibal led his soldiers around the countryside, plundering livestock and valuables. However, when the Romans began to follow his troops, Hannibal retreated. Polybius compares Hannibal to the Theban general Epaminondas, who once ambushed Sparta in a manner similar to Hannibal’s attack on Rome. The historian praises both men for their boldness and cunning.
Polybius outlines the qualities required to make an effective leader, leaving aside examples in which fate played an influential role in acquiring power. He argues that timing, silence, and accurate knowledge are necessary for success in battle.
Polybius explores Roman commander Publius Cornelius Scipio’s strategic genius, revealed in his siege of New Carthage. The historian addresses earlier accounts of Scipio that color him as favored by fortune. He argues that Scipio’s success was due to his planning, organization, and logic. Scipio took advantage of an opportunistic moment: Carthaginian forces were scattered around Spain, leaving an opening for Scipio to advance his army into New Carthage. This would give him a central position and a store of weapons and wealth.
Scipio met with locals to learn about the city and to expose its secrets. The discovery of a shallow lagoon gave him an idea for a land and naval assault on New Carthage. His first attempt was unsuccessful, but this gave his enemies the sense that they were unbeatable. On his second attack, Scipio took advantage of low tide, scaling the city from a side that was unwatched by guards.
Polybius praises Scipio’s approach in the aftermath of his victory. He gave each soldier a fair share, released citizens, promised freedom to enslaved laborers, and recruited workers to join him. He then sent a letter out, declaring his victory and building his reputation. At news of his success, those who were reluctant to ally with Rome felt motivated to declare their allegiance.
Everyone awaited the arrival of Hasdrubal to arrive in Italy and join his brother Hannibal with the aim of reinforcing Carthaginian forces. The Romans were eager to stop the brothers’ reunion. Hasdrubal realized he had no time to develop a strong strategy against the advancing Roman army, so he positioned his military behind a line of elephants.
Roman commanders struggled to gain access to Hasdrubal. Terrain limited access from the sides, and the elephants were strong enough to trample both armies. The relentlessness of Roman troops at all available sides forced Hasdrubal into an impossible situation. He died in battle. Polybius pauses to pay tribute to Hasdrubal, whom he considers a courageous and dignified leader. He explains that the way Hasdrubal faced death is further evidence of the leader’s strength and character.
Rather than thinking only of what he would do if he won, Hasdrubal thought carefully about what he would do if he found himself in a position of loss: “These remarks may serve as a warning to all those who direct public affairs that they should neither betray the hopes of those who trust in them by recklessly exposing themselves to danger, nor by clinging to life when duty has shown them another path” (426). Hasdrubal solidified himself in the memory of his soldiers by fighting until the end. Polybius praises Hannibal’s leadership as well, but argues that the leader would have achieved more had he focused on conquering other parts of the world before taking on Rome.
The Roman army killed approximately 10,000 Carthaginians and Gauls in the battle against Hasdrubal. The word of their victory spread throughout Rome.
While Polybius alludes to criticism of the Sicilian historian Timaeus in previous sections, he devotes himself to his topic in Book 12. He opens his argument with a critique of Timaeus’s geographical writing, noting that the scholar relied heavily on outdated and biased myths about Africa as a barren landscape with few animals. Polybius emphasizes that Timaeus was a lazy and hypocritical historian who used secondhand rather than primary sources while judging others for doing the same. Timaeus’s writing about the colony of Locri in Italy made a false claim about nobility descending through a maternal line, and Polybius condemns this as a gross inaccuracy.
Polybius delineates between falsehoods that are intentional and unintentional, and he asserts that Timaeus was guilty of both. Polybius believes that it is the historian’s duty to adhere to the truth, even when the facts do not align with the historian’s personal perspective: “If writers make all their judgements according to the measure of their own anger and jealousy, we inevitably come to suspect their statements and to be on guard” (435). Polybius concludes that Timaeus deliberately misrepresented history to advance his own agenda, and that he relied on gossip rather than evidence.
Books 9 through 12 are bookended by Polybius’s critique of previous historians and the foundation he hopes to set for future historical criticism. Polybius does not just want to tell stories—he wants to teach others how to read history responsibly. His work is both a chronicle of Rome’s rise and a manifesto for how history should be written and why it matters. Polybius tears down the work of Timaeus and others for relying on gossip, myths, and secondhand stories without direct experience. He also condemns Timaeus for using rhetorical speeches to distort facts and for slandering those for whom he held biased opinions based on his own background.
Polybius’s conviction lies in his belief that history holds important lessons than can inform the future. Polybius asserts that historians have a responsibility to serve future readers with usable knowledge. He believes that societies rely on knowledge to survive and that a bad understanding of history leads to bad decisions in the future, perpetuating The Cyclical Nature of History. The content of Books 9 through 12 mirror Polybius’s philosophy. He studies Scipio’s strategic mind, digging into motives and strategies without allowing his position as an Achaean leader to impact his view of the Roman leader.
One of the lessons that history offers is what it takes to be a good leader, contributing to the theme Growth Through Discipline and Strength. In Book 9, Polybius takes a break from providing pure historical narrative to offer a critique of good leadership. He identifies three qualities that he feels are the foundation of effective leadership: Timing, logic, and moral judgment. Polybius explains that a good commander is not simply brave or merely lucky, but one who knows how to calculate myriad factors and make informed and balanced decisions. These decisions include the angle of an attack, the best time to strike, and the proper equipment to use.
These decisions are also rooted in morality, an important part of The Balance of Fortune and Virtue. Leaders who are negligent are not victims of fate and fortune; instead, they are authors of their own defeat. In the previous section, Polybius highlighted several military commanders who exhibited failed leadership. Here, he emphasizes those who reveal important lessons about what it means to stand at the front of the battlefield. Roman officer Scipio Africanus exemplifies discipline and measured strength. His conquest of New Carthage is a case study in precise execution and ingenuity. Polybius is particularly complimentary of how Scipio managed his success after battle: “It is a great feat to steer a policy to a successful conclusion or to overcome one’s enemies in a campaign, but it requires a great deal more skill and caution to make good use of such triumphs” (418). Scipio rewards his troops fairly, honors the dignity of captives, and earns the loyalty of allies by practicing restraint in his victory.
Another leader whom Polybius praises is Hasdrubal, Hannibal’s brother. The Battle of the Metaurus represents a dramatic reversal of expectations, as Rome, previously under siege, begins to gain the upper hand. Polybius reminds readers that the result of the battle was not due to fortune but to the strategic planning and resilience of the leaders involved. Hasdrubal fell to a flank maneuver from Rome. However, Polybius does not entirely discount the role of fortune either: His language shows that fortune can still turn the tide of battle. Over the long arc of history, however, the Greek historian asserts that it is virtue—particularly the disciplined exercise of foresight, restraint, and strength—that determines endurance and success.



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