The Rise of the Roman Empire

“Just as Fortune has steered almost all the affairs of the world in one direction and forced them to converge upon one and the same goal, so it is the task of the historian to present to his readers under one synoptical view the process by which she has accomplished this general design.”

Polybius steers away from his historian predecessors, including Timaeus, whom he felt relied too heavily on myth and gossip in his accounts. As he explores The Balance of Fortune and Virtue and its relationship to Rome’s expansion, he argues that both play a role in the trajectory of history.

“Certainly the turn of events which befell the Medionians might have been expressly designed by Fortune to demonstrate her power to mankind in general; for overnight she had enabled them to inflict on their enemies the very fate which they believed the latter were about to inflict on them.”

In this passage, Polybius is describing an unexpected reversal in a battle. The Medionians seemed destined for defeat but then were miraculously saved. He uses the Medionians as an example of Fortune’s impact on outcomes and how it can sometimes overcome the influence of virtue (or lack thereof).

“Now, human nature is always fallible, and to meet with some unpredictable mishap is not the fault of the victim, but rather of ill-fortune, or of those who have inflicted it on him. But when we err with our eyes open and involve ourselves in great tribulations through sheer lack of judgement, then everyone agrees that we have nobody to blame but ourselves.”

In this passage, Polybius emphasizes The Balance of Fortune and Virtue by showing how both impact historical outcomes. An individual cannot control the hand of fate but can control their reactions. Unpredictable disasters are accidents of fortune, but self-inflicted failures are errors of judgment or character. Polybius argues that virtue, especially as it relates to organization and discipline, is a key to long-term success.

“His father took him by the hand, led him up to the altar and commanded him to lay his hand upon the victim and swear that he would never become a friend to the Romans.”

In Book 3, Polybius shares Hannibal’s origin story. Hannibal’s father instilled in his son a hatred for the Romans. Polybius uses this narrative in his development of a new historical approach: The examination of causes and their relationship to outcomes. By carrying his analysis back to Hannibal’s childhood, he reveals the inevitability of the Hannibalic War.

“If we remove from history the analysis of why, how and for what purpose each thing was done and whether the result was what we should reasonably have expected, what is left is a mere display of descriptive virtuosity, but not a lesson, and this, though it may please for the moment, is of no enduring value for the future.”

Polybius provides justification for his examination of causality in history. He argues that it is not enough to focus merely on the mythical side of history, emphasizing virtues and the influence of the gods over empirical evidence. For the Greek statesperson, history held lessons that could influence and shape the future as well.

“And so by concentrating all their attention upon their domestic problems and political rivalries they finally became so brutalized that there was no city in Greece in which such atrocious or such frequent outrages were committed.”

In his analysis of Growth Through Discipline and Strategy, Polybius shares examples of leaders and cultures which failed, using their downfalls to juxtapose the might and leadership of the Roman Republic. Polybius asserts that the downfall of the Cynaethans was their abandonment of their cultural practices. He saw their traditions as virtuous. They emphasized music and the arts in service to the gods. When they abandoned these traditions and focused instead on their own political challenges, they lost sight of what was important and made themselves vulnerable to siege.

“Philopator, however, neglected all these areas of his authority, and gave his whole attention to ignoble love affairs, and to senseless and continuous drinking. And so, as might have been expected, it was not long before conspiracies began to be formed.”

Polybius criticizes Ptolemy’s leadership style, using it as a contrast to the Roman leaders and Hannibal. The Greek historian views discipline as vital to growth and the acquisition of power. Ptolemy’s downfall was that he was entrapped by the lifestyle of his wealth rather than focused on his duties as a leader.

“Whenever one of the three elements swells in importance, becomes overambitious and tends to encroach upon the others, it becomes apparent for the reasons given above that none of the three is completely independent, but that the designs of any one can be blocked or impeded by the rest.”

Polybius here highlights Rome’s mixed constitution and political structure. In this passage, he refers to Rome’s balance of powers: Consuls (monarchical power), Senate (aristocratic power), and popular assemblies (democratic power). He argues that this mixed approach helps to check the ambition of individuals and interest groups while creating a stronger, more interdependent government. This mixed form of government challenges The Cyclical Nature of History, which often results in forms of successful governments devolving into their chaotic forms.

“So when we see that the customs and laws of any given people are good, we can conclude with confidence that the citizens and their constitution will likewise be good.”

This passage draws a direct line of connection between the virtues of a culture and its leaders and its success as a political and diplomatic power. Polybius asserts that strong governments are designed to benefit their people by giving them the opportunity to live virtuous lives. This argument is part of the theme, The Balance of Fortune and Virtue. While he recognizes that Rome was offered certain fateful advantages, he suggests that it is their virtue and discipline that tipped them toward success.

“But here they failed to reckon with the talents of Archimedes or to foresee that in some cases the genius of one man is far more effective than the superiority in numbers.”

This line emphasizes Polybius’s belief in the power of leadership. He creates a definition of leadership that encompasses ingenuity, adaptability, and foresight. Although Archimedes was not Roman, Polybius highlights his accomplishments, especially those which made him a formidable challenger to the Roman military.

“The first and most essential requirement is silence.”

In this passage, Polybius outlines what he believes are the three key qualities of an effective leader. The first is silence, which Polybius describes as both the ability to maintain secrecy about one’s plans and strategies and as the ability to keep one’s thoughts in check.

“If Fortune were to give him the victory, he would safely consider what his next action would be.”

In this passage, Polybius highlights the key qualities that made Scipio such an effective leader. He shows that The Balance of Fortune and Virtue is needed in success. While Scipio’s achievements were impacted by luck and fortune, his reactions and logic made him a formidable opponent.

“But when Fortune had deprived him of all hope for the future and driven him to the last extremity, then, while he used every resource which might bring him victory both in his preparations for the battle and on the field itself, he gave equal thought as to how in the event of total defeat he should face that eventuality.”

Polybius praises Hannibal’s brother Hasdrubal for the way he handles his defeat in a battle against the Romans. The historian argues that how a leader handles loss and death is as important as how they manage their political and military strategies. This concept relates to the theme of Growth Through Discipline and Strategy. In Polybius’s view, discipline requires careful consideration of both defeat and success and how to face both with dignity and strength.

“I have also remarked, however, that there are two kinds of falsehood, the one being the result of ignorance and the other intentional, and that we should pardon those who depart from the truth through ignorance, but unreservedly condemn those who lie deliberately.”

While criticizing the Sicilian historian Timaeus, Polybius provides an outline for how he believes historians should approach their subject matter. He condemns Timaeus’s falsehoods, which he argues are often intentional, for advancing a skewed version of history. Polybius exemplifies his own balanced approach: Although he belongs to the Achaean League, he devotes himself to praising the tactics of the Roman Republic.

“Now Syphax and his friends had at first planned to continue their retreat and return home, but it is so happened that near the town of Abba they met a contingent of Celtiberians over 4,000 strong.”

Although the Greek historian emphasizes virtue in The Balance of Fortune and Virtue, he repeatedly acknowledges how fate and fortune play significant roles in the outcomes of battles and in the trajectory of history. Even after a demoralizing defeat by Scipio, fate enabled the Carthaginians to continue their campaign against the Roman Republic.

“But I fear that you, Scipio, partly because you are very young and partly because the whole course of events in Spain and in Africa has favoured your plans, so that you may have never yet experienced the ebb-tide of Fortune, will not be influenced by my words.”

Even as Polybius champions Scipio’s moral integrity, adaptability, and military strength, he cautions him. He argues that Scipio has benefited from chance and fortune, which may turn against him in the future. Scipio’s successes were due to his integrity and discipline, but he was also favored by luck.

“So when you go to meet the enemy, there are two objects only to keep before you, to conquer or to die.”

Polybius offers his remarks as a guidebook for future leaders. He argues that good leaders consider how they will act when they win and when they lose. Here, he suggests that it is unacceptable for someone in a position of power to do anything other than to face the reality of two extremes. Retreat undermines the authority of the individual; only death or victory will do.

“Instead of meeting his enemies face to face, his practice was to retreat before them burning and plundering cities as he went […] though he was defeated himself.”

Throughout the work, Philip V offers a stark contrast to the other leaders in this time in history. Polybius argues that Philip was, at first, a good leader, but his immaturity and lack of focus soon led to his demise. In this passage, Polybius aligns Philip with the vice of cowardice—a major offense in ancient Greek and Roman cultures.

“Thus Scipio, after he had laid the foundations in his early years for his chosen ideal, never looked back in his progress towards a reputation for self-discipline and nobility of character.”

Polybius uses Scipio to demonstrate Growth Through Discipline and Strategy, showing that Scipio refined and worked toward building his character throughout his life. Polybius admires this approach, seeing it as the underpinning of any good leader. Since Scipio paid as much attention to his own actions as the actions of others, he was able to build a reputation that added to his strength and respect.

“There were no more than a few occasions of this kind which we can ascribe to chance or good luck.”

Here, Polybius doubles down on his assertion that Scipio’s success is mostly due to his character. He shows that while Scipio benefited from The Balance of Fortune and Virtue, it was his morality and clarity that landed him ultimate success.

“But as for those events whose causes we can discover and give an explanation as to why they happen, we should certainly not in my opinion regard them as acts of God.”

Polybius condemns historians who attribute certain moments in history to the fate of the gods, arguing that there were very clear markers that led up to specific events. Polybius establishes a new way of thinking about human experience and the cycles of political power by focusing on causality and how it shapes the course of history.

“The evil grew upon us rapidly and overtook us before we were aware of it, the simple reason being that men had fallen a prey to inflated ambitions, love of money and indolence.”

Polybius is self-reflective in this passage as he considers the downfall of the Achaeans and how they lost such a significant amount of power to the Romans. He determines that a lack of firm moral standing is the beginning of degradation and anacyclosis. The Achaeans devolved into a chaotic government because they failed to prioritize virtue above all else.

“Such an outcome can only baffle our intelligence, for it is difficult to discover any rational cause for it.”

In contrast, Polybius attributes the fall of the Macedonians to an element of fate, arguing that there are some moments that have no explanation or cause. This assertion leads back to the theme of The Balance of Fortune and Virtue, revealing that both are necessary for growth and power.