The Simple Path to Wealth: Your road map to financial independence and a rich, free life

Collins tackles a common retirement question: how much of one’s portfolio one can safely withdraw each year without running out of money. He frames this around the well-known “4% rule,” which originated from the Trinity Study, a research effort that tested how different withdrawal rates and portfolio mixes performed over 30-year periods. Collins explains that a 4% withdrawal rate from a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio, adjusted annually for inflation, succeeded 96% of the time.

To support this, he presents four key tables from the study. Tables 1 and 2 show how long portfolios lasted under different stock/bond allocations and withdrawal rates, with and without inflation adjustments. Tables 3 and 4 reveal how much money would typically be left after 30 years under those same scenarios. The takeaway is that portfolios with more stocks, especially when kept in low-cost index funds, tend to survive longer and leave more wealth behind.

Collins also shares his own withdrawal habits—over 5% at times—but stresses the importance of flexibility. The key lesson isn’t to fixate on a number like 4% but to understand how adaptability, cost control, and portfolio composition shape long-term financial security.