Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis

Diamond identifies four potential problems for “worldwide harm” (383): Explosions of nuclear weapons; climate change; resource depletion; and inequalities of living standards (383). 

He imagines four scenarios that could result in the explosion of nuclear weapons. One, an irrational leader could consider a surprise attack. Two, there could be an “escalating series of miscalculations of a rival government’s response” (386), as almost happened during the Cuban Missile crisis. Three, there could be “an accidental misreading of technical warning signs” (388), especially if relations between Russia and the US are strained. Four, terrorists could acquire such a weapon or one with radioactive material.

Climate change or global warming could lead to drought, decreased food production, the introduction of tropical diseases into temperate zones, and rising sea levels. The latter could make highly populated places unlivable. Diamond highlights fossil fuels in his discussion of the depletion of natural resources. He highlights the damages caused by fossil fuels and notes the alternative sources of energy, which are not as damaging. A switch from fossil fuels is necessary to prevent further damage to the environment. Other natural resources are endangered as well. He cites forests, fisheries, and fresh water. With increasing population levels, Diamond expects “many, many more conflicts caused by international competition for limiting resources” (410).