Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis

Diamond highlights the US’s strengths and discusses at length its most serious problem. He argues that the US faces a slowly unfolding crisis arising from both internal and external threats. The biggest problem the US faces is polarization of its citizenry, while China poses the greatest external threat.

Diamond lists the many strengths of the US first. It is the “world’s most powerful country” (327) and has the largest economy. It has tremendous geographical advantages, including a large area of fertile land, coastal and interior waterways, deep water ports, and oceans protecting it from foreign invasion. The US is a net exporter of food. Its military is the most powerful one in the world. For 230 years, the US has benefitted from a stable democracy. Such a form of government ensures political rights and compromise. The federal system in the US additionally allows for states to experiment and develop models for the resolution of national problems. With a long history of governmental and private investment in “education, infrastructure, human capital, research, and development” (339), the US is a leader in technology and, until recently, had high socio-economic mobility. Immigration has benefitted the US as well.

However, American democracy is now threatened most seriously by an “accelerating deterioration of political compromise” (341). This trend has accelerated since 2005 and has become self-reinforcing. Moderate candidates are unlikely to seek office, given the sharp polarization in politics. Some causes of this trend are the “astronomical rise in costs of election campaigns” (344), the growth of domestic air travel, and gerrymandering. The high cost of campaigns has caused candidates to rely on large donors, who insist on certain policy goals and do not accept compromise. The growth of air travel has resulted in members of Congress returning home often and not forming relationships with members of the other party. Gerrymandering occurs when Congressional districts are drawn to benefit one party. With the increase in “safe” seats, members do not worry about the votes of moderates. Their only concern is winning a primary, and less-compromising candidates are advantaged in such elections.

It is not only politicians who are polarized. American voters have become “more intolerant and politically uncompromising” (348). Part of the explanation for that is that Americans seek out information only from sources biased toward their viewpoint. Even more concerning, polarization and abusiveness is on the rise beyond politics. There is a declining level of courtesy and debates are more vicious. In short, there is a decline in social capital or connections among citizens. More and more, Americans are not involved in “face-to-face groups” (351). Forms of entertainment are solitary. Constantly checking phones and looking at screens, it becomes easier to be rude in exchanges. The vitriol on the screen carries over to live interactions.

Given that communication has changed all over the world, Diamond asks why the impact on the US is so profound. One explanation is that these innovations came first to the US, and other countries will soon experience a similar breakdown in compromise. Another possible explanation is that the US started out with less social capital upon which to draw: It has significantly lower population density than other affluent countries and a strong belief in individualism. Thus, it is going to take a “conscious effort” (355) for leaders and voters to break this gridlock.

Chile, once a democracy, devolved for decades into a dictatorship. That outcome is less likely in the US because of its stronger democratic traditions, belief in egalitarianism, lack of a hereditary land-owning class, and tradition of civilian control of the military (355). However, it is still possible in the US because there is more private gun ownership and greater levels of violence against individuals and minority groups. Diamond concludes that the external threat, China, could not destroy the US but that Americans could destroy themselves.

The US confronts at least three other problems: Voting, campaign finance, and inequality. While these problems do not immediately threaten to undermine US democracy, they are nonetheless serious.

It is concerning that the US “ranks at the bottom in voter turnout” (359) among affluent countries. One of the reasons for this low turnout is the US’s unique registration requirements. There is a long history in the US of voter suppression and that problem persists in the 21st century. For example, photo identification requirements disproportionately affect minorities and poor people. In Texas, individuals sometimes have to travel as many as 250 miles to acquire such an identification (362). As a result, wealthy Americans are much more likely to vote than are poor ones. Elections are extraordinarily expensive in the US: This fact gives power to wealthy donors and discourages some candidates from running for office.

Another problem is inequality. While the US enshrines legal equality in its founding documents, it has the greatest economic inequality among major democracies. The growing gap between the rich and poor results from governmental policies and public attitudes (365-6). The US government transfers less money from richer to poorer people than other countries because of its tax policy and weak social safety net. Since more rich people vote, these policies go unchallenged. The rampant individualism in the US results in people believing that poor people alone are responsible for their fate. Increasingly, the US additionally has a decreasing level of social mobility—i.e., poor people escaping poverty and becoming middle class or wealthier. The rags-to-riches story in the 21st century is largely a myth.

These economic problems ultimately impact all citizens. Increasing anger with such inequalities can lead to violence. It is essential for nations to invest in the future. The US government is failing to do that and, as a result, is “losing its former competitive advantage that rested on an educated workforce, and on science and technology” (372). Less money is being spent on education, the money that is spent is not yielding good results, and there are substantial differences in the quality of education that Americans receive (372-3). Unlike other countries, the US pays its teachers poorly and assigns them low status. Instead of investing in the future, the US is lowering taxes for wealthy people.

Applying his framework to the US, Diamond identifies the favorable and unfavorable factors affecting the US’s future ability to resolve its crises. On the positive side, the US has “the greatest freedom of choice” (377) given the wide oceans and non-threatening countries that surround it. Americans have a strong national identity and are flexible. Americans share core values of liberty, equality, and democracy, though with “blind spots in applying them” (378).

However, there is neither a national consensus that the US is facing a crisis, nor a willingness to accept responsibility for American problems. Indeed, there is a tendency to blame others for problems without undertaking an honest self-appraisal of what is and is not working (378). What is more, the US is unwilling to learn from the models created in other countries. Canada and West European nations have developed useful models for handling problems similar to those faced in the US, but the US fails to take advantage of that. Of less significance, Americans are not used to tolerating national uncertainty and failure. Nor has the country recently survived a crisis. The US’s success in navigating these crises will depend on the choices it makes.