59 pages • 1-hour read
Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis
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Prologue-Part 1Chapter Summaries & Analyses
Part 1 “Individuals
Prologue Summary: “Legacies of Cocoanut Grove”
Diamond argues that the large body of research about the resolution of personal crises has some applicability to national crises. He provides an example of a personal crisis, specifically a fire at a Boston nightclub called Cocoanut Grove in 1942, and a national crisis, namely Britain’s loss of its colonies and economic struggles between 1956 and 1961.
In Boston’s fire, 492 people died and hundreds were injured. Some of the survivors and loved ones of victims never got over this crisis, yet most did. They did so via “a slow process of grieving, reappraising their values, rebuilding their lives, and discovering that not everything in their world was ruined” (4). They created new identities that coexisted with old ones in a mosaic (5). Diamon asserts that nations do this as well. Britain, for example, shed its empire but remained a wealthy country with a parliamentary democracy.
Crises, which confront individuals and groups of all sizes, can arise from external or internal pressures. Coping successfully “requires selective change” (6). Complete change is impossible. A crisis is a turning point, bringing a challenge that necessitates finding new coping mechanisms. Crises can be navigated successfully, partially successfully, or not at all. There are differences of opinion as to what rises to the level of a crisis. Diamond focuses on major crises that occur every few decades to once in a century. Some crises can come suddenly, such as a military attack. Most, however, “are the culmination of evolutionary changes extending over many years” (9).
Although nations differ from individuals, Diamond considers it advantageous to consider national crises from the perspective of individual ones for several reasons. Non-historians are more likely to understand individual crises. Additionally, research on individual crises provides a set of factors to help make sense of the outcomes of national crises. Some factors apply well to both sets of crises. For example, friends help individuals in a crisis, while allies help nations. Others do not apply: Ego strength does not have a direct parallel, but the strength of national identity is somewhat related. Unlike individuals, nations have leaders, political and economic institutions, and the capacity to engage in violent revolution.
Diamond provides a comparative study of crisis and selective change occurring over decades in seven nations: Finland, Japan, Chile, Indonesia, Germany, Australia, and the US. His intention is to develop hypotheses and variables from these case studies that can be applied to other countries and tested quantitatively. He has visited all these countries multiple times and learned the languages of six of the seven. Drawing upon his own life experiences in these countries and the personal accounts of others, he describes how each nation has coped with crisis and emphasizes the similarities and differences in approach.
Part 1, Chapter 1 Summary: “Personal Crises”
Describing a personal crisis at the age of 21, Diamond explains how laboratory work in graduate school proved challenging. It was the first time in his life that he had not excelled in academics. During a break in his studies, he traveled to Finland and questioned whether he should return to graduate school. He met his parents in Paris and told them he was considering becoming a translator instead of a physiologist. His father encouraged him not to make such a momentous decision immediately, telling him to return to graduate school at Cambridge and try another half-year. That advice resolved his crisis, as he returned to graduate school, excelled, and completed his PhD.
Like Diamond, most people have experienced a personal crisis. Such crises occur when “facing an important challenge that fe[els] insurmountable” (32) by one’s usual methods of coping. Such crises can occur from a shocking event or can build up over time and explode. Frequently, relationship problems, deaths, illnesses, and financial insecurity create crises. An individual typically finds new ways of coping within six weeks or does not deal with the crisis well.
Therapists counsel people in a crisis to first build a fence or identify what has gone wrong. What is wrong is fenced off in the mind, which allows the person to see that other things are still okay. Then, the therapist encourages a “process of selective change” (37), with alternative ways of coping developed to deal with the problem. It is impossible to completely change and, thus, it is critical to change only some behaviors.
In the field of short-term crisis therapy, 12 “factors make it more or less likely that an individual will resolve a crisis” (38). There must first be an acknowledgment that one has a crisis, followed by an acceptance of personal responsibility for resolving it. Next is the step of building a fence, or selective change. Fourth, help from others, such as material and emotional support, can help one weather a crisis. It is additionally helpful to have models or to know people who have endured a similar crisis. One’s ego strength—the level of acceptance one has for oneself—affects the ability to resolve the crisis as well.
Seventh, an individual must honestly appraise strengths and weaknesses to identify what is working and what is not. Previous experience with crises provides more confidence to deal with a new one. Ninth, patience is helpful. It might take a trial-and-error approach to resolve a crisis. 10th, flexibility is useful. Core values can help to identify where to draw the line at selective change, yet they are a double-edged sword. They can provide a “foundation of strength” (47), or prevent one from resolving a crisis if misguided. Lastly, freedom from constraints impacts the resolution of personal crises: It is more challenging to resolve a crisis if one has responsibilities for other people.
While nations are distinct from individuals, Diamond anticipates “some relationships between how individuals cope with individual problems, and how nations composed of many individuals cope with national problems” (48). For seven of the 12 factors, there are clear parallels between individuals and nations. Nations must acknowledge being in a crisis and accept responsibility for resolving it. They also must build a fence and make selective changes. While nations would not receive emotional help, they can get material help from allies. Additionally, nations can construct resolutions modeled on the experiences of other nations. Like individuals, nations have historical experiences.
For two factors, the analogy is more general in nature. Nations differ in responses to failure. In individuals, the factor is patience to try other approaches. Nations additionally have limitations on their freedom of choice in the form of “geography, wealth, and military/political power” (52). For the three remaining factors, the individual factors serve only as metaphors for nations. While nations do not have ego strength, they do have a sense of national identity. Nations are not categorized as having flexible outlooks, but can be flexible in given situations. Finally, nations can have national core values often related to national identity.
National crises include factors not applicable to individual crises. Unlike in the case of individuals, there is a role for political and economic institutions, leaders, and group decision-making while navigating a national crisis. Violent solutions are possible. National crises can be triggered by internal developments or by “an external shock from another country” (54).
Prologue-Part 1 Analysis
Diamond draws upon research from psychology about the navigation of personal crises to analyze how nations survive crises, introducing the key theme of Parallels Between Personal Therapy and Collective Adaptation. His goal is to develop a theory or several working hypotheses that future scholars can test more rigorously. While Diamond acknowledges that individuals and nations are not the same thing, he believes that therapeutic principles can be adapted to national case studies.
To that end, Diamond employs a case study format, advocating for Learning from Comparative History in comparing and contrasting seven nations. Choosing these countries because of his familiarity with them, Diamond freely admits that his case studies do not provide a random or diverse sample of countries. He has visited all the countries and made his own observations, interviewing several people from each country and doing historical research. It should be noted that Diamond’s methodology has attracted some criticism due to the anecdotal nature of some of his claims, a limitation which Diamond does not fully acknowledge within the text. He has not necessarily included all major viewpoints about the unfolding crises in each country given this methodology, which means that not all of his assertions are substantiated or objective by academic standards. As a work of popular nonfiction aimed at a general audience, Diamond thus favors accessibility and broad concepts over a more rigorous or detailed approach that would be found in specialized academic works.
Drawing upon research in the field of psychology, or more specifically personal therapy, he identifies 12 factors that he believes can illuminate The Nature of Successful Navigation During National Crises. It becomes clear that some of these factors are more important than others, but Diamond does not list them in their order of importance. Indeed, some countries will resolve crises successfully with some, but not all, of these factors present. The first three are essential, as there must be an acknowledgment of the crisis, an acceptance of responsibility to address it, and the building of a fence or the initiation of selective changes. Others, such as support from allies and freedom from geopolitical constraints, do not appear as necessary: They can be helpful, but a crisis can be navigated without them.
Recognizing that nations and individuals are distinct, Diamond admits the need to adjust some of the factors to account for this distinction. For example, a nation cannot have ego strength but its people can have a sense of national identity. That factor assumes importance in most of the resolutions of crises. Diamond additionally acknowledges that other factors come into play in the resolution of national crises. Most importantly, leaders can have a potential impact, as can existing institutions. There is also the option of using violent means to resolve a national crisis. Although there is not a perfect fit with the factors borrowed from psychology, Diamond uses these factors to provide a general rubric for assessing responses to national crises.
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