59 pages • 1-hour read
Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis
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Themes
The Nature of Successful Navigation During National Crises
Diamond identifies 12 factors that he believes are important while facing a national crisis. While he does not order the factors by importance, his case studies demonstrate that some factors are consistently present in the successful resolution of national crises, while others are found in the successful resolution of some crises but not others. In trying to determine the common factors, Diamond seeks to illuminate the nature of successful navigation during national crises.
Diamond argues that there are seven factors that must be present to resolve a crisis in every scenario he studied. First, there must be an acknowledgment that a crisis exists, such as when Finland recognized the crisis of the Soviet invasion. Second, there must be an acceptance of responsibility for dealing with the crisis, such as when West Germany accepted responsibility for the atrocities it committed during World War II. Third, the nation must undergo an honest self-appraisal, identifying what is not working and what is: When democracy was re-established in Chile, both left- and right-wing politicians recognized that compromise and moderation were necessary. Fourth, all successful cases implemented selective changes, fixing what was preventing them from resolving the crisis but retaining other aspects of their culture. For instance, Meiji Japan westernized its military while retaining its core cultural values. Other common factors were patience with national failure, the presence of core values, and situation-specific flexibility. An eighth factor, strong national identity, appears in all the successful cases except Indonesia.
Four other factors were instrumental in some countries, but not present for others. Some countries benefit from the help of allies, such as when Meiji Japan benefited from western investment. It is also beneficial for countries to have models to follow, since if another country navigated a similar crisis, its ways can be copied. Again, Meiji Japan used western models to modernize its military and educational systems. The experience of past crises can help a country get through another one. Finally, geopolitical constraints vary widely: Finland and Germany had severe constraints given their borders, yet both navigated their crises successfully.
Diamond asserts that this exploratory study demonstrates the applicability of these factors to the successful resolution of national crises. Given its limitations, such as a small and non-random sample of cases, he calls upon other scholars to test these factors with larger samples and quantitative methods to determine with more exactitude which factors are the most crucial, and what common themes emerge when broader comparisons are applied.
Learning from Comparative History
Throughout Upheaval, Diamond compares how nations resolve crises, usually examining his case studies in pairs to determine how they were different or similar in terms of extenuating factors and how each nation responded to their respective crisis. In doing so, Diamond argues for the value of learning from comparative history.
Diamond believes that comparative history can provide useful models for countries to imitate when facing a present or future crisis. For example, he argues that both Japan and the US have models that they can follow in navigating their current dilemmas. Japan has an issue with an ageing population and a low birth rate, but has so far resisted implementing any immigration reforms. Diamond suggests that Canada could provide a useful model, as it pursues strict immigration policies that ensure that most immigrants bring specific value in addressing the country’s needs, ensuring a balance between immigration and ongoing national cohesion. The US faces issues with electoral campaign financing and growing wealth inequality. Both its neighbor Canada and Western European nations offer successful models that the US could potentially adapt to address its own problems.
Such successful comparative models can also provide reassurance that some changes, while initially daunting, can strengthen the country in the long run. For example, Diamond points to West Germany as a country that shows how acknowledging past atrocities and accepting responsibility for them can be far more empowering and productive than clinging to narratives of denial or victimization. Germany’s apologies ultimately strengthened the country by enabling them to forge better relations with other powers. By contrast, Japan’s reluctance to admit to its war crimes in WWII continues to seriously hamper its relations with Korea and China. Diamond implies that if Japan does not learn the lessons offered from Germany’s history, it could worsen its current crisis or create new ones.
Comparative history can also provide useful warnings regarding problems that should be addressed, or by providing models for what not to do. Diamond examines how in Allende’s Chile, there was a strong element of political polarization, with Allende initiating widespread reforms that did not have sufficient popular support, while his right-wing opponents plotted to overthrow him. Since Allende did not address this polarization effectively, his enemies were able to stage a successful coup and institute a dictatorship under Pinochet. Diamond believes that political and social polarization is now a serious crisis in the US, with the example of Chile suggesting that such polarization must be taken seriously and addressed before it creates an even bigger crisis for the nation.
Diamond’s analytical approach thus suggests that there are many advantages to learning from comparative history. In looking for similar crises, nations can discover effective solutions and even find reassurance that a crisis does not have to fatally compromise a country’s long-term prosperity and identity.
Parallels Between Personal Therapy and Collective Adaptation
Diamond draws upon the research from personal therapy to explain how nations navigate crises. Professional therapists help individuals cope with personal crises and have identified key factors to help them do so. Nations, according to Diamond, are not all that different. He argues that they are likely to benefit from similar factors in dealing with crises, drawing parallels between personal therapy and collective adaptation.
Several therapeutic methods smoothly apply to national ones, while others require some adjustment. Like individuals, nations must acknowledge the existence of a crisis, accept responsibility for resolving it, engage in an honest self-appraisal, and identify and implement selective changes. Nations and individuals also have a history of experiences, as do individuals. Although nations cannot obtain emotional support from friends, they can receive material support from allies and they can learn from other countries or model their behavior. While an individual can exhibit patience in the process of adopting new ways to deal with a crisis, nations do not have the attribute of patience or impatience. Nevertheless, in a crisis, they can adopt a trial-and-error approach to failure. Like individuals, nations can have limitations on their freedom of choice, albeit different ones. For example, nations have geographical constraints as well as military ones.
Diamond also acknowledges how some therapeutic principles serve more as “metaphors” (52) than factors directly applicable to nations. For example, nations do not have flexible or rigid personalities, so Diamond applies this concept in a situation-specific way, asking if a nation responded flexibly or inflexibly in a crisis. Nations do not have ego strength or sense of self, purpose, and acceptance of oneself, so Diamond substitutes national identity for ego strength. He defines national identity as “the features of language, culture, and history that make a nation unique among the world’s nations, that contribute to national pride, and that a nation’s citizens view themselves as sharing” (52). From that factor of a shared national identity, per Diamond, a nation can have core values.
Diamon argues that the same framework explaining how individuals successfully navigate crises applies to nations. However, he acknowledges that some factors influential in the resolution are not relevant for individuals. There is a significant role for leaders in a national crisis, and nations, unlike individuals, have political, economic, and social institutions that can play a role in crises. Nations also have the option to resolve crises with violence, such as a coup or revolution. Although an individual can resort to violence, such a course is undoubtedly going to lead to failure.
Despite these critical differences between individuals and nations, Diamond argues that his framework has enough applicability to warrant additional testing. He calls for more research to test whether these parallels provide a useful lens for analyzing familiar national issues.
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