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Studying history is important, in part because it reveals the contingency of present arrangements. Seeing how things used to be expands the possibility of changing things as they currently are. Furthermore, different people can draw very different lessons from looking into the past, which has profound implications for policymaking. A compelling example is President Richard Nixon’s interest in a universal basic income. Nixon was an unlikely champion of such a policy, as a conservative Republican at a time when the War on Poverty was a distinctly Democratic policy. Just as Nixon was about to publicly announce a plan for subsidizing poor families, however, an advisor handed him a brief report on a similar experiment in 19th-century England, alleging that it had a ruinous effect on the people it was meant to help. Nixon shifted to emphasizing the necessity of employment as a precondition for assistance, linking a progressive policy to a conservative sensibility, and the work requirement reinforced the idea that the poor were lazy and unwilling to work, so Nixon’s policy proposal collapsed.
Because the example of a 19th-century England experiment helped defeat a welfare proposal in the modern US, Bregman reexamines that earlier case. In the late 18th century, England was reeling from social unrest, and the French Revolution suggested that the entire social and political system was at risk. In response, the town of Speenhamland in southern England offered aid to the poor as a way to blunt more radical programs. The program succeeded, but a noteworthy objection from Thomas Malthus warned that providing aid to the poor would cause the population to outstrip the food supply, ultimately leading to famine and disease. After an uprising against agricultural landowners, the government decided to crack down on the poor instead of assisting them. Official government reports insisted that Speenhamland’s program made the poor lazy and that only withholding aid spurred them to become productive again. Many years later, it became apparent that the government report was more concerned with promoting a particular narrative than analyzing data. The uprising in fact occurred not because of the poor receiving more money and thus becoming reckless in their demand for more, but rather because of a proposed policy to end the program and return to the “gold standard.” The myth of Speenhamland’s failure helped justify a brutal system of workhouses that exploited the labor of the poor based on the idea that only harsh measures could prevent laziness. Similar ideas endured well into the 20th century, blaming the supposedly deficient morals of the poor for their lack of economic mobility. With Nixon’s failed proposal, the US lost a golden opportunity to change the script and move toward alleviating poverty, but attitudes can change, and a better understanding of history can play a major part in changing them. The current system is not working by any standard, liberal or conservative. Neither the material nor moral conditions of the poor are improving, because the current system is designed to keep them in penury, withdrawing its benefits the moment they achieve even a modicum of financial independence. An obsession with employment rather than quality of life is ensuring that the poor stay that way.
Richard Nixon is a worthwhile subject of analysis for a book on combining utopianism with realism. The Watergate scandal and the needlessly destructive escalation of the Vietnam War largely defined Nixon’s legacy in the public imagination, but Bregman does not treat him as a villain. Rather, he appears as a subtle political operator with an admirable sense of his own place in history. Nixon was conservative in many respects, and he dismissed any challenge to his power as a threat to the moral fabric of American society, but he was also keenly aware of how to leverage his conservative reputation to propel a political agenda that was partially progressive. Nixon calculated that he was ironically well suited to enact social reforms since no one could accuse him of being a radical. Conservatives would support him as preferable to a genuine liberal, and liberals would be divided over supporting social progress—and thereby boosting Nixon—and proposing more radical alternatives unlikely to win popular support. Nixon often played this card to great effect, such as in ratifying the Environmental Protection Agency, de-linking the US dollar from the gold standard, and (most notably) opening diplomatic channels with China after a quarter-century of hostility. Regardless of whether Nixon actually believed that what he was doing was good, it was effective: He won a whopping 49 states in his 1972 reelection campaign.
A basic minimum income thus fit within Nixon’s political strategy, and its success could have transformed his presidency and the entire country. In this case, Nixon’s strategy failed because he was apparently unable to connect the policy to the interests of his core constituents. Everyone benefited from cleaner air and water, a looser monetary policy permitted more federal spending than under the gold standard, and the diplomacy with China isolated the Soviet Union from what had been its most important ally. Nixon wanted voters and policymakers to embrace his universal basic income program but lacked the information to explain how it would benefit them. In Bregman’s view, this is because powerful interests have suppressed the success of unconditional aid, either to protect their own privileged position or out of the moral conviction that the poor do not deserve such benefits. Although Nixon failed, his example shows that utopian policy proposals need not wait for a utopian world; indeed, policies precede circumstances in modern society. The right political calculus—and the right information to sell it—can achieve what most considered hopelessly unattainable only a short time ago. The Nixon proposal highlights another of the book’s major themes, The Contingency of History, by powerfully exemplifying how history is not a tale of inevitable outcomes that could have led only to the world as it is. Had circumstances been only slightly different, Nixon could have transformed the US welfare system and set an example for others to follow. At the present moment, American democracy is more of a cautionary tale than a model, especially compared to other advanced democracies, but the future will bring other opportunities for great change precisely because history is not fixed.



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