Rules of Prey introduces Lucas Davenport, a Minneapolis police lieutenant, and the serial killer he is tasked with catching.
The story opens from the perspective of a man known only as the maddog, a young attorney who lurks in the warehouse studio of a young artist, waiting to attack. He operates by strict rules derived from studying murder investigations: never kill anyone you know, never have a motive, never follow a discernible pattern, never carry a weapon after it has been used. He leaves one of these rules, cut from newspaper letters and signed "maddog," on each victim's body. He has already killed two women in the Twin Cities, raping them while wearing prophylactics and surgeon's gloves to avoid leaving evidence. His backstory reveals a lonely childhood on a Texas ranch, where he developed violent compulsions by torturing animals.
When the maddog attacks his third intended victim, a St. Paul artist named Carla Ruiz, she fights back with Mace and a steel pipe, forcing him to flee and leaving behind his gun. Police trace the weapon to the department's property room. Because Lucas had access to that room and fits certain aspects of the killer's profile, he is placed under internal-affairs surveillance. Meanwhile, the maddog shifts his obsession to Jeannie Lewis, a real-estate agent he met at the county clerk's office. Posing as a prospective homebuyer, he lures Lewis to a vacant house, knocks her unconscious, binds her, and kills her with a kitchen knife.
Lewis's murder occurs while Lucas is under surveillance, clearing him as a suspect. Police Chief Quentin Daniel assigns Lucas to the case full-time, working independently alongside the homicide division. Lucas is an unconventional detective: Well-dressed and scar-faced, he supplements his income by designing role-playing games, drives a Porsche, reads poetry, and has already killed five people in the line of duty. Daniel holds a press conference revealing the serial killings and identifies Lucas as the lead investigator.
Lucas interviews Carla, who recalls that her attacker had soft hands, wore cologne, was very pale-skinned, spoke with a faint accent she associates with New Mexico, and wore Nike Air shoes. He also consults his childhood friend Elle Kruger, a nun and psychology professor at St. Anne's College, who explains that the maddog fixates on a specific physical type, likely dark-haired women, and that his compulsion will escalate.
A retiring officer named Harry Roe tells Lucas he took the gun from the property room and gave it to a dying neighbor, Larry Rice, for home protection. Rice's widow, Mary Rice, does not know who bought the gun before her husband's death. As detectives trace the gun's path, Lucas discovers that all of the maddog's victims had recently visited the Hennepin County courthouse, suggesting the killer selects victims there.
When Detective Sloan connects a welfare worker named Jimmy Smithe to Rice and to the victims, Daniel orders Smithe's arrest despite Lucas's objections that Smithe's muscular build and shoes contradict Carla's description. The arrest proves disastrous: The maddog, furious that someone else is receiving credit, calls Lucas and recites the notes from the crime scenes, confirming Smithe's innocence. Smithe is released after providing solid alibis, humiliating the department.
Lucas begins feeding disinformation to Annie McGowan, a reporter at Channel Eight, using the code name "Red Horse." He tells McGowan the killer is impotent and repulsive, hoping to goad the maddog into a mistake. Meanwhile, Lucas starts a romantic relationship with Carla, and Jennifer Carey, a TV3 reporter he has been seeing, reveals she is pregnant with his child. Jennifer refuses marriage but wants Lucas involved as a father.
The maddog kills twice more. He murders Heather Brown, a teenager working as a prostitute, after spotting her in court, then tortures and kills Cheryl Wheatcroft, a law student who uses a wheelchair, in an especially brutal attack. He calls Lucas's answering machine afterward to say it was "lovely."
Lucas recognizes that McGowan fits the maddog's victim type and that the disinformation has enraged the killer toward her personally. Daniel authorizes surveillance of McGowan's house. The maddog takes the bait one night but flees when a rookie officer's squealing tires alert him. In the chaotic pursuit, Officer Sally Johnson shoots two attacking dogs, but the homeowner emerges with a shotgun and kills Johnson. Another officer returns fire and kills the homeowner. The maddog escapes.
The break comes through Sloan's persistent work on the gun trail. He pressures Alan Nester, an art dealer who bought valuable ivory netsukes, small Japanese carved figurines, from the dying Rice at a fraction of their worth. Nester reveals that when he visited Rice, the man was waiting for his attorney to pick up his will. Mary Rice locates the will and reads the attorney's name: Louis Vullion. State records show Vullion is a 27-year-old redhead who owns a midnight-blue Thunderbird, matching a car spotted near a crime scene. Lucas realizes red hair would appear dark under streetlights, resolving conflicting witness descriptions.
Daniel authorizes surveillance of Vullion rather than arrest, since the evidence is too thin for a conviction. Lucas covertly searches Vullion's apartment, finding Nike Airs and Texas tax returns but no direct evidence. To create probable cause for a future warrant, he plants photographs of the victims under Vullion's mattress. He also builds a homemade silencer for an unregistered Smith & Wesson Model 39, loading it with a blank round and hollow-point ammunition.
The maddog spots the surveillance by noticing a broken turn-signal lens on a trailing car. He finds and burns the planted photographs, then devises an escape. Over several nights, he loosens partitions in his attic to create a passage into a neighbor's empty apartment. On the night of his attack, he slips through the attic, drives a secretly purchased car to Carla's studio, and gains entry by claiming to deliver a pizza from Lucas. He sprays Carla with Mace and beats her. She reaches for the revolver Lucas gave her but cannot get her finger through the trigger guard before the maddog knocks her unconscious.
At the surveillance post, Lucas notices Vullion's bedroom light is dark. Getting no answer after 50 phone rings, he kicks in Vullion's door, finds the attic stairs pulled down, and races to Carla's studio. Vullion attacks from hiding, smashing Lucas's hand with a pipe and slashing with a knife, but Lucas overpowers him. He frees Carla, who is bound and beaten but alive. Vullion taunts that he could plead insanity and walk free. Lucas fires a blank at the ceiling, then shoots two hollow-point rounds into Vullion's lungs. He stages the scene as self-defense by placing the silenced pistol in Vullion's hand and firing it to leave powder residue. As Vullion dies, Carla stumbles into the room. His last word, looking at the dark-haired woman standing over him, is "Mom?"
Two days after Christmas, Lucas visits Elle and gives her a medallion crediting "Nun the Wiser" for helping catch the maddog. When Elle raises the circumstances of Vullion's death, Lucas offers to tell her everything. She declines, leaving the moral ambiguity unresolved. Lucas and Jennifer have agreed he will remain faithful through the baby's early years. Carla has moved to Chicago with a new gallery deal, and Lucas continues to have nightmares.