2024

On August 8, 2022, the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump's private club in Palm Beach, Florida, seizing 11 sets of classified documents Trump had refused to return despite more than a year of requests from the National Archives. Trump used the search as a catalyst to announce another presidential run. Advisers described the campaign as "running for his freedom," since an official candidacy could frame any criminal charges as politically motivated. Multiple investigations were already circling him, including federal probes into his handling of classified records and his role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, a New York hush money investigation, and a Georgia election interference inquiry.

Trump's top political adviser, Susie Wiles, a veteran Florida Republican operative, had spent 2021 and 2022 rebuilding his political operation from Mar-a-Lago after finding him isolated following his departure from the White House. At Trump's insistence, she recruited Chris LaCivita, a Marine veteran known for aggressive tactics, as her combative partner. Together they ran a leaner, more disciplined operation than Trump's previous campaigns.

Trump announced his candidacy on November 15, 2022, days after midterm elections that fell short of the anticipated Republican wave. The announcement prompted Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint Jack Smith as special counsel. Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, fresh off a 20-point reelection victory, emerged as the leading alternative. The Trump campaign and an allied super PAC, an independent committee able to raise unlimited outside money, launched what aides called a psychological warfare operation against DeSantis. Focus groups revealed that Trump supporters' loyalty was so intense that traditional opposition research proved useless against him. DeSantis's campaign faltered from its botched May 2023 launch and never recovered. Trump's four indictments between March and August 2023 paradoxically boosted his primary standing, as Republicans rallied to his defense. He skipped all primary debates, won the Iowa caucuses with an outright majority, and secured the nomination after DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley withdrew.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden decided to run for reelection by never deciding otherwise. No adviser told him he should not run, partly out of fear of being accused of disloyalty. Biden and his inner circle drew validation from the strong 2022 midterms. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris had endured a rocky start in office, but after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, she became the administration's most effective messenger on abortion, which proved to be Democrats' key advantage in the midterms.

Warning signs about Biden accumulated. His fall at the Air Force Academy commencement prompted staff to overhaul protocols. Special Counsel Robert Hur's report on Biden's handling of classified documents, released in February 2024, declined to prosecute but described Biden as "a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory." A press conference afterward worsened matters when Biden confused the president of Egypt with the president of Mexico. His polling hovered in the high thirties, and his campaign pollsters met with him exactly once during the entire race.

The June 27 presidential debate on CNN was a disaster. Biden arrived at Camp David for preparation visibly sick with a cold and never completed a full mock debate. On stage, he stumbled from the first question, mangling talking points and trailing off mid-sentence. His most memorable gaffe was concluding a jumbled health-care answer with "We finally beat Medicare." Ron Klain, Biden's former White House chief of staff and debate adviser, announced in the hold room, "We're fucked." Calls for Biden to withdraw began immediately. Over the following weeks, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi publicly declined to endorse his continued candidacy, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told Biden that most Democratic senators wanted him to step aside. Biden resisted, insisting only "the Lord Almighty" could convince him to leave the race.

On July 13, a 20-year-old gunman named Thomas Matthew Crooks fired at Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, grazing his right ear. Trump rose with blood streaming down his face, pumped his fist, and mouthed "FIGHT" to the roaring crowd, producing an iconic image. The assassination attempt propelled Trump into the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where he named Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate. That same week, Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the classified documents case, ruling the special counsel's appointment unconstitutional.

Biden tested positive for COVID on July 17. On Saturday, July 20, after hearing from longtime allies that it was time to step aside, Biden summoned his chief strategist Mike Donilon and senior adviser Steve Ricchetti to review devastating polling and a growing list of congressional defections. He decided to withdraw. On Sunday, July 21, he called Harris, posted his withdrawal letter online, and followed with his endorsement of the vice president.

Harris spent the rest of that day making over a hundred calls to secure delegate commitments. The campaign raised $81 million in 24 hours. She selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate after a rapid vetting process, choosing him over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. The new ticket drew enormous crowds across battleground states. Yet Harris's truncated campaign struggled with fundamental strategic questions most campaigns resolve a year before Election Day. She did not sit for her first interview until more than a month after becoming the nominee, and when asked on The View what she would do differently from Biden, she answered, "Nothing comes to mind," handing Trump a devastating clip.

Trump's campaign identified its path to victory through male voters, especially young and nonwhite men, pursuing them through podcasts, UFC matches, and TikTok. Trump's 18-year-old son Barron helped vet which shows to appear on. A 2019 video of Harris endorsing taxpayer-funded gender-affirming care for prison inmates became one of the campaign's most effective attack ads. Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who formed his own pro-Trump super PAC, spent over a quarter of a billion dollars funding door knockers, voter referral bounties, and targeted digital ads.

Harris debated Trump on September 10, baiting him into emotional responses, but the overall race barely moved. A second assassination attempt at Trump's West Palm Beach golf course on September 15 heightened security concerns for the final stretch. At a Madison Square Garden rally on October 27, a warm-up comedian called Puerto Rico "a floating island of garbage," damaging Trump with Latino voters. Two days later, Biden called Trump supporters "garbage," allowing Trump to seize the narrative. Harris delivered her closing argument at the Ellipse, the site where Trump had addressed supporters before the January 6 Capitol attack, but Biden's gaffe dominated the news cycle.

On election night, Trump's data team tracked precinct-level returns showing an eight-point net swing in his favor in Indiana's early vote compared to 2020. By 11:00 p.m., Wiles told Trump she was certain he would win. At the vice president's residence, Harris watched as Trump established leads across the map. Campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon directed staff to begin drafting a concession speech. Harris conceded the following day.

Trump named Wiles as White House chief of staff and rapidly assembled his cabinet. Biden repeatedly told allies he could have won had he stayed in the race and granted his son Hunter Biden a full and unconditional pardon. At his inauguration, moved indoors by extreme cold, Trump signed executive orders invoking emergency powers, granted blanket clemency to approximately 1,200 January 6 defendants, and hung his framed mug shot near the Oval Office. Asked if he was a dictator, he looked into the camera and said softly, "No. I can't imagine even being called that."