Biological War: A Scenario

The scenario begins with an explosion at the State Scientific Center of Virology and Biotechnology VECTOR, a BSL-4 (Biosafety Level 4) maximum-containment facility in Koltsovo, Siberia. The U.S. State Department suspects that Russia maintains an offensive biological weapons program, while U.S. intelligence believes Vector remains connected to it. A U.S. satellite immediately detects the blast, triggering a CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) alert. Various American intelligence agencies mobilize: The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) tasks satellites for images, the National Security Agency (NSA) intercepts communications, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) uses its MASINT (Measurement and Signature Intelligence) office to analyze physical signatures, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) begins atmospheric plume modeling. The CIA’s Counterproliferation Division contacts a deep-cover asset to gather human intelligence. The chapter also recounts a 1988 accident at Vector in which scientist Nikolai Ustinov accidentally infected himself with Marburg virus and died; according to former Biopreparat deputy chief Ken Alibek, the virus recovered from Ustinov’s body was subsequently used to develop a more virulent biological-weapons strain called Marburg Variant U.

A guilt-ridden Vector scientist confesses to a priest that he caused the explosion after deliberately starting a small fire intended to destroy his illegal biological-weapons work—though he withholds from the priest that he had been working on a genetically modified pneumonic plague weapon.