Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump

In the Introduction, the authors lay out their theory that Donald Trump’s 2020 election loss enabled him to become a more consequential and feared president than if he had won a second consecutive term. Had he won, they suggest, his presidency would have been hobbled by the pandemic, inflation, and a difficult Afghanistan withdrawal, likely weakening him and the MAGA movement. Instead, Trump’s refusal to accept defeat and his insistence on a stolen-election narrative, which many aides initially saw as self-destructive, laid the foundation for his return.

After being politically isolated and banned from social media in early 2021, Trump rebuilt his operation with a small, loyal crew. He successfully reframed his numerous legal perils—including indictments and a felony conviction—as a politically motivated “witch hunt,” which solidified his support. His second term, beginning in 2025, was starkly different from his first. He was surrounded by true loyalists, had an almost absolute grip on Congress, and was protected by a Supreme Court ruling granting broad presidential immunity. In his first year back, Trump had begun dismantling the post-World War II international order, used the Department of Justice (DOJ) to target his enemies, and joined Israel in a war against Iran.

Eight days after his 2024 election victory, President-Elect Trump held a surprisingly congenial Oval Office meeting with President Joe Biden, who had been forced out of the presidential race. Trump praised Biden’s presidency and sympathized with his family’s struggles, disarming Biden, who nevertheless privately considered pardoning his son, Hunter. Biden soon felt hoodwinked, however, as Trump reverted to his old patterns of attack. 

At his Mar-a-Lago estate, a contented Trump enjoyed his newfound legitimacy, having won the popular vote and survived an assassination attempt. He summoned tech CEOs for humiliating dinners; at one dinner with Mark Zuckerberg, Trump cued an anthem performed by the J6 Prison Choir before the meal, forcing the Meta CEO to stand with his hand on his heart. Trump later boasted about groveling text messages from Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos alike. Though Trump briefly spoke of focusing on legacy and rising above grievances, his desire for revenge resurfaced as Inauguration Day neared. In a final moment of restraint, advisors convinced him to remove a vow to pardon the January 6 rioters from his inaugural address, an act described as one of his last concessions to decorum.

A week after the 2024 election, Trump assembled his advisors at Mar-a-Lago to select his cabinet. The selection process was guided by personal loyalty, television appearances, and a new litmus test regarding the 2020 election and January 6. Trump quickly named Marco Rubio for secretary of state, revealed that he had already offered the role of national security advisor to Mike Waltz, and picked John Ratcliffe for director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) after being assured that he would “shred” the agency. Other unorthodox picks included Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense and Kristi Noem for secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), chosen for loyalty over the objections of Stephen Miller. After a failed attempt to nominate Matt Gaetz, Trump filled top DOJ posts with his personal lawyers, including Pam Bondi as attorney general.

On Inauguration Day, after delivering an address reminiscent of his “American Carnage” speech, Trump was in the Oval Office when he learned that President Biden issued last-minute pardons for his own family members. Feeling betrayed by Biden’s earlier warm welcome, Trump grew impatient with an ongoing review of January 6 cases. Though JD Vance had publicly stated on Fox News Sunday that violent offenders should not be pardoned, Trump impulsively issued a blanket pardon for everyone charged in connection with the Capitol riot, including those who attacked police officers.

In the new Trump administration, Miller took an expansive dual role as deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security advisor. His early tenure was marred by a chaotic policy rollout when an Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memo, pushed by his team, froze federal funds, including Medicaid. The action caused public panic and was quickly blocked by a federal judge. To protect himself from the fallout, Miller publicly defended the memo but privately blamed Mark Paoletta, the OMB general counsel, for sending it out without his approval. Furious over the bad press and the appearance of weakness after the memo was rescinded, Trump demanded a distraction, leading his advisors to announce that they were going to open camps in Guantánamo Bay to detain migrants.

The authors detail Miller’s long-term preparation for a second term, which included creating a “fake” Office of Legal Counsel of loyal lawyers to draft legally aggressive executive orders. They also introduce the new chief of staff, Susie Wiles, a savvy political operative valued by Trump for her calming influence and stability. Although she was considered to be a skilled operator, her inexperience in federal policy positioned her for a potential power struggle with ideologues like Miller.

Ten days into Trump’s second term, his promise to end the war in Ukraine remained unfulfilled. He appointed retired General Keith Kellogg as a special envoy, who developed a detailed peace plan. Kellogg presented his proposal in an Oval Office meeting, suggesting a ceasefire enforced by peacekeepers from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries and economic pressure on Russia. Trump immediately dismissed the plan, repeatedly insulted Ukrainian President Zelensky, and expressed sympathy for Russia’s position, blaming NATO expansion for the conflict. The only part of the plan that interested him was a proposed deal for Ukraine’s critical mineral resources, which he saw as a way for Ukraine to repay the US for past aid.

The meeting ended when Trump abruptly forbid Kellogg from contacting the Russians, revealing that they were “working a deal” without him (39). It became clear, the authors suggest, that Trump had secretly sidelined his own envoy. He had established a parallel back channel to Russia run by Steve Witkoff, a real-estate investor with no foreign-policy experience. Before Kellogg’s meeting, Witkoff had already met with senior advisors to discuss his contacts; Rubio proposed testing their legitimacy by requesting the release of a specific hostage, Marc Fogel. Kellogg was left completely unaware that his role had been given to someone else.

This chapter details the formation of the political alliance between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Beginning in 2023, Musk, driven by business grievances and personal politics, dramatically shifted his support to Trump, spending over $300 million and using his social-media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) to aid the campaign. During this time, Musk developed the idea for a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which Trump adopted as a key policy.

After the election, Musk was appointed a “special government employee” to run DOGE (45), which granted him unprecedented, direct authority from the president but little oversight. Operating from the White House and advised by Stephen Miller and Russell Vought, Musk became a constant presence whom Trump found useful as a “heat shield” for controversial cuts. Musk’s power peaked as he targeted the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which he considered “evil.” Following a presidential freeze on foreign spending, Musk’s team discovered that some payments were still flowing and retaliated by completely disabling USAID’s payment systems. This unilateral action created a national-security crisis by cutting off funds to critical areas, including a Syrian detention camp for ISIS fighters, possibly allowing the fighters to escape. The fallout left officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio to manage the decimated agency, and top administration staff began to view the once-praised Musk as an unaccountable and chaotic force.

Newly appointed Secretary of State Rubio met with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele to negotiate a “safe third country” agreement as part of the Trump administration’s plan for mass deportations (53). Bukele rejected the proposal, refusing to let El Salvador become a dumping ground for migrants. He made a startling counteroffer: His country could imprison migrant criminals from the US in its Terrorism Confinement Center. This proposal became the genesis of a surprising future deal. 

The chapter then details Rubio’s political history, including his family’s immigrant background (his parents immigrated to the US in 1956 when the Batista government was still in power, before Castro’s revolution), his involvement in the failed Gang of Eight immigration reform, his 2016 rivalry with Trump, and his subsequent transformation into a loyal ally. In the new administration, Rubio focused on Latin America and maintained a deferential relationship with Trump, who often pit him against JD Vance. Rubio achieved a diplomatic victory when he successfully negotiated the return of Marc Fogel, an American teacher freed from a Russian prison.

Real-estate developer Steve Witkoff was appointed as Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East. He first worked with the outgoing Biden administration to successfully broker a six-week ceasefire and hostage exchange in Gaza. Witkoff’s portfolio then expanded to the Russia-Ukraine war, and he established a back channel to Moscow through Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Witkoff traveled to Russia and held a three-hour private meeting with Vladimir Putin, returning with a term sheet containing US-Russian business opportunities.

Following this, Trump had a warm phone call with Putin, discussing a potential peace deal and business interests. Immediately after, Trump called Ukrainian President Zelensky, opening by asserting that he “just talked to [Zelensky’s] best friend, Vladimir Putin” (65)—a cruel opening, the authors suggest, given that Putin had been bombing Ukraine for nearly three years. Trump pressed Zelensky to make a peace deal, telling him that he had no money and that his country was being destroyed. Simultaneously, new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent traveled to Kyiv and demanded that Zelensky sign an agreement giving the US 50% of future revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources, which Zelensky furiously rejected as a “shakedown. The US later held peace talks with Russia in Riyadh without inviting Ukraine. When Zelensky protested, Trump publicly called him a “dictator,” further escalating tensions.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu became the first foreign leader to visit Trump, seeking to repair their relationship and secure US support for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Impressed by a recent Israeli pager attack on Hezbollah, Trump was receptive. After their meeting, Trump impulsively announced a plan for the US to “take over” the Gaza Strip and redevelop its coastline, a move conceived without any consultation that shocked his advisors. 

Soon after, Trump met with both Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson, showing them the gold-plated pager that Netanyahu had given him. Carlson warned Trump against being manipulated by administration hawks into a war with Iran, which he argued would ruin Trump’s presidency. The president’s focus shifted to an obsessive redecoration of the White House, marked by a rivalry with his wife, Melania, over decor. This culminated in his signature project: a massive new ballroom that required the demolition of the entire East Wing and that proceeded despite objections about its disruptive location above the presidential emergency bunker.

At the president’s urging, Musk sent an email to all federal employees demanding weekly accomplishment reports, stating that non-compliance would be treated as a resignation. The move created chaos and angered senior White House staff. Meanwhile, a conflict arose between Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent over a minerals deal with Ukraine. Lutnick renegotiated what he believed was a flawed deal, but Bessent argued that his original uncapped deal was far more valuable, earning him the president’s favor at Lutnick’s expense.

Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the White House. In a tense Oval Office meeting, Zelensky pushed for security guarantees, while Trump focused on the minerals deal. The discussion devolved into a heated public argument, with Vance and then Trump accusing Zelensky of being disrespectful and ungrateful. An enraged Trump declared Zelensky to be “gambling with World War Three” and canceled the signing ceremony (85), ordering the Ukrainian delegation to leave. The confrontation alarmed European allies but was celebrated by the Trump administration and officials in Moscow.

In his second term, Trump redecorated the Oval Office with a distinctive gold aesthetic, a style mirroring his economic philosophy modeled on the Gilded Age. Just 11 days after his inauguration, Trump invoked emergency powers to sign executive orders imposing steep tariffs on Canada, Mexico (25% each), and China (10%), citing illegal immigration and the fentanyl crisis as justification. The decision was made impulsively, against the counsel of senior aides like Stephen Miller and Scott Bessent who urged a more considered approach. Trump dismissed their concerns, even adding the tariff on China as an afterthought during a meeting.

The move caused panic in corporate America, especially among automotive executives who warned that the tariffs would devastate their industry. Trump announced that the full tariff regime would launch on April 2, which he dubbed “Liberation Day.” He was unmoved by the resulting market turmoil, a notable change from his first term. After a direct appeal from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, whom he complimented, Trump agreed to delay the North American tariffs but declared that there would be no more exceptions. His advisors, realizing that Trump was no longer using tariffs as a mere bargaining chip and could not be restrained, became fearful of the impending global trade war he now seemed to relish.

In his second term, Trump bypassed Congress by issuing over 140 executive orders, declaring (what the authors deem to be debatable) national emergencies to expand his power. His administration cracked down on civil society, arresting a student protestor, Mahmoud Khalil, as a national-security threat. A massive interior deportation campaign, led by Stephen Miller and Tom Homan, began with the goal of 1 million arrests per year. The operation used highly visible raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to instill fear, but its execution was stymied by what Miller saw as incompetence at the DHS led by his rival, Secretary Kristi Noem.

Trump also met with top fossil-fuel CEOs, immediately granting their requests. He directed the attorney general to sue states over climate laws and threatened the European Union with tariffs to block environmental regulations. Miller demanded that companies accelerate oil production to show results within Trump’s term, ignoring physical and legal impossibilities of doing so. The administration’s foreign-policy focus turned to Venezuela, with Trump privately considering annexation to control its vast oil reserves. This plan was complicated by political conflict, as envoy Richard Grenell negotiated with dictator Nicolás Maduro while Marco Rubio and other Florida Republicans leveraged their power to demand a harder line, threatening Chevron’s continued operations there.

Tensions between Elon Musk’s DOGE and the cabinet culminated in a contentious meeting. Musk aggressively confronted Secretary of State Rubio and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy over their failure to fire staff, demanding individual names as proof that there was a plan to aggressively reduce staff count. Both secretaries pushed back, citing early retirements and the danger of laying off critical personnel like air traffic controllers. After allowing the confrontations to play out, Trump intervened, defending his cabinet and declaring that the secretaries, not Musk, would be in charge of their departments. Musk’s role was officially reduced to an advisory one, with Trump later posting that future cuts would be made with a “scalpel” instead of Musk’s “hatchet.” Privately, Trump decided that Musk’s time in the administration would soon end.

Days later, at a meeting with technology CEOs, Musk sounded the alarm about America’s dependence on Taiwanese semiconductors, warning that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would crash the American economy. Trump interjected, threatening companies with 100% tariffs if they didn’t move their semiconductor manufacturing to the US. The meeting concluded with aide Howard Lutnick privately asking the CEOs to help him persuade Trump against imposing these tariffs too hastily, arguing that a transitional period would be necessary for companies to shift their supply chains.

In a tense meeting a week before a planned global tariff launch on Liberation Day, Trump rejected tariff data from Commerce Secretary Lutnick as “bullshit” and invented his own vague formula to calculate tariff rates, frustrating his economic team. Despite opposition from Lutnick and even Speaker Mike Johnson, Trump moved forward with his plan. On April 2, 2025, he imposed a massive, hastily conceived tariff on all imports, causing global financial markets to plummet. The stock market lost trillions, and a historic bond-market sell-off signaled a loss of faith in US debt, raising fears of a global depression.

After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell refused to intervene, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Lutnick urgently pressured Trump to de-escalate as the crisis deepened. On a flight to Washington, Trump dismissed their concerns and belittled Lutnick. Facing financial collapse driven decisively by the collapsing bond markets, Trump abruptly announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs for every country except China, against whom he dramatically raised the rate to 125%. The markets surged, and while his team claimed this was the plan, Trump admitted that he made the decision that morning. A newly assertive Bessent physically confronted Elon Musk over control of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).