Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government

Christopher H. Achen, Larry M. Bartels

49 pages 1-hour read

Christopher H. Achen, Larry M. Bartels

Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government

Nonfiction | Reference/Text Book | Adult | Published in 2016

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Chapter 11-AfterwordChapter Summaries & Analyses

Chapter 11 Summary: “Groups and Power: Toward a More Realistic Theory of Democracy”

Achen and Bartels lay out some general lines for a more realistic democratic theory. The authors argue that the “folk theory” of democracy fails as both an empirically accurate description of democracy and as a good basis for designing reforms. According to them, it’s not necessarily a crisis of democracy itself that has occurred, but a crisis of theory. None of the populist models, cue-taking models, or retrospective voting models explain how citizens really think and behave. Most voters tend to be inattentive, group-oriented, and only loosely tied to specific policy issues; moreover, most retrospective judgments do not accurately link to how well a government performs.


Achen and Bartels then turn to social groups, parties, and power as the foundational elements of a more realistic democratic theory. According to the authors, parties serve primarily as coalitions of social groups, not as means for expressing citizens’ consistent policy views. Citizens typically select a party because it represents their identity and group affiliation, not because they carefully consider competing party platforms. The authors look at several historical examples, including Adolf Hitler’s electoral successes in Weimar Germany. The authors see Hitler’s victories as a combination of poor retrospective experience (economic), identity politics, and a strong leader able to capitalize on citizen discontent.


Although the authors believe that elections continue to provide important democratic value, they do not agree that this value arises from the fact that elections reliably represent a unified, coherent popular will. Rather, the authors see elections as providing opportunities for peaceful authorization of leaders, removals of ruling parties without violence, creation of disincentives for governments to suppress opposition, and sometimes reinforcement of broad social norms.


Finally, the authors argue that if democracy is going to become a more genuine democracy, reformers need to think in terms of different levels of power among groups rather than just more direct participation by all. Organized interests dominate actual policy-making processes due to resources, while other groups are disorganized or not represented adequately. Therefore, the authors suggest that achieving a more democratic society would require greater economic and social equality, reduced influence of wealth over politics, and more serious consideration of how group representation, party coalitions, and institutional design affect political results.

Appendix Summary

The Appendix provides a brief mathematical treatment of the two models of retrospective voting that are developed in the body of the book. In one model, retrospective voting serves as a selection mechanism. That is, voters evaluate their experience during the incumbent’s term in office in order to assess the incumbent’s underlying competence and make a decision regarding re-election. 


In the other model, retrospective voting acts as a sanctioning mechanism. In this case, voters reward or punish incumbents based upon perceived welfare to encourage effort even though they may not be able to measure competence. Both models demonstrate mathematically how random factors and imperfections in voter information impede the connection between observable outcomes and leadership quality. 


As such, the Appendix provides further clarification of the theoretical foundation for the authors’ criticism of retrospective accountability, and underscores their central claim that democratic control is frequently impaired by partisan noise, misattribution, and uncertainty.

Afterword Summary

In the Afterword, Achen and Bartels apply their book’s argument to the 2016 presidential election and maintain that similar social and electoral dynamics were equally present in this election as those analyzed throughout the book. They emphasize that social identities played a critical role in shaping voters’ choices. While Donald Trump attracted large numbers of white Christians and college-educated males who viewed him as a strong leader who would protect their identities from their perceived enemies, Hillary Clinton generated significant support among educated women and racial, ethnic, and religious minority groups who identified with her candidacy and extensive public service history. Identity was more relevant to candidate choice than were detailed policy positions.


Building on this insight, the authors then expand their discussion to include Bernie Sanders’s primary campaign. Even though many observers portrayed Sanders as an ideologically driven candidate on behalf of a new type of left-wing movement within American politics, Achen and Bartels argue that his support was also shaped by social identities and symbolic affiliations rather than changes in policy views. Compared to Hillary Clinton, Sanders did significantly better among men than among women, white persons than among people of color, and among Democratic Party identifiers than among independents. Similarly, Sanders’s supporters were no more likely than Hillary Clinton’s supporters to favor the specific policies promoted by Sanders. From Achen and Bartel’s perspective, Sanders served less as an exclusively ideological leader than as a conduit for negative attitudes toward Hillary Clinton and feelings about being an outsider.


The Afterword concludes by arguing that 2016 was a “remarkably ordinary election” (339). Utilizing the same set of fundamental electoral variables that they used earlier in the book—economic conditions at election time, plus years since the last election—Achen and Bartels assert that there existed expectations that the Democratic candidates would win the national popular vote by a narrow margin, which is nearly what occurred. Thus, Trump’s victory in the Electoral College was far less indicative of a massive electoral mandate than a very close election where the outcome depended on small margins in individual states. Finally, they highlight that the most extraordinary aspect of 2016 was not widespread ideological shifts, but why so many Republicans eventually supported Trump despite his obvious shortcomings.


Lastly, the Afterword examines the book’s broader themes concerning parties, nominations, populism, and democratic norms. The authors characterize Trump’s eventual nomination as a result of reliance on primary systems that give disproportionate voice to relatively few citizens, while they portray Brexit as another instance of the risks associated with plebiscitary governance.

Chapter 11-Afterword Analysis

In this concluding section, Achen and Bartels convert the book’s earlier criticisms of the viability of certain democratic institutions into a broader critique of the romanticism underlying much democratic theory. Prior to this chapter, Achen and Bartels argued that neither policy-based voting nor retrospective accountability can bear the weight that democratic theorists assign to them. They now shift to exploring what form of democratic theory might remain viable after these unrealistic assumptions are abandoned. They suggest that the failure of citizens to meet democratic ideals is not solely due to citizen incompetence. Instead, many democratic ideals have been developed based on unreasonable assumptions regarding how citizens think, judge, and behave.


Achen and Bartels discuss the transformation of democracy from a system of direct popular control to a system of organized power, reflecting their interest in Group Identity as the Foundation of Political Behavior. If individual voters do not provide clear guidance through coherent preferences, then representation relies on the various groups, parties, and organizations that translate societal interests into political clout. Therefore, their assertion, “If voters are to have their interests represented in the policy-making process, then, interest groups and parties have to do the work” (321), represents the key to their argument. They thus change the focus of assessment from whether elections accurately represent an uncorrupted popular will, to whether the organizational structures that represent society have sufficient political power relative to their presence within society. If politics is comprised of groups, then democracy depends on how well-organized, represented, and listened to those groups are.


The authors argue that elections still perform essential functions, but insist that their uses are different from those traditionally emphasized in democratic mythology. Elections continue to legitimize governments without bloodshed; they establish the expectation that there will be some turnover; they legitimate opposition; and they sometimes implement common values held by large numbers of people. While this approach represents a narrower view of electoral virtues than the folk theory offers, they believe it is nevertheless more durable because it does not assume that elections generally reflect a unified popular will. They suggest that rejecting The Illusion of Electoral Mandates could create a more realistic vocabulary for authorization, alternation, and limited accountability than the traditional vocabulary of mandate. 


The Afterword demonstrates that this realist interpretation remains applicable even under a circumstance that many would treat as unique, bringing their discussion of Misattribution, Randomness, and the Limits of Democratic Accountability to a close. Instead of treating the 2016 presidential election as an event that invalidated all previous interpretations of electoral behavior, Achen and Bartels argue that the election actually conformed to previously established patterns. To them, Trump is an unusual candidate, but they assert that his election illustrates conventional influences: Party loyalty, social identification, and structural electoral patterns. They note that even though “Donald J. Trump was far from being a typical presidential candidate” (338), the distribution of votes in the 2016 presidential election conformed closely to long-established trends. In particular, the Afterword suggests that the tendency to regard 2016 as either a dramatic ideological realignment or an unprecedented democratic message represents similar tendencies toward overinterpretation that the authors have identified throughout the book. Moreover, their examination of the voter allegiances around Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Sanders suggests that group membership remains more influential than specific policy issues, even during an election cycle heavily characterized by ideological rhetoric.


Finally, Chapter 11 returns to an institutional concern that is central to several chapters of the book: The danger of confusing increased direct public involvement with enhanced democratic wisdom. They suggest that Trump’s presidential nomination and Brexit illustrate how plebiscitary mechanisms are similarly susceptible to the misconceptions examined in greater detail elsewhere in the book. The authors do not suggest that participatory methods are inherently illegitimate, but they do believe a that procedural innovations justified by appeals to democratic purity may continue to exacerbate contingency, incomplete information, and rhetorical politics. Regardless of whether voting is conceived as a rational method of controlling politicians, randomness and poor attribution will remain impediments to effective democratic decision-making.


The authors therefore conclude that elections are shaped by identity, mediated by organized groups, and are bound by severe constraints in terms of citizens’ ability to evaluate competing alternatives. The primary analytical contribution of this final section is its refusal to opt for either cynicism or optimism. Achen and Bartels reject neither democracy nor faith in democracy’s classic rationales; instead they argue that democracy can only be defended responsibly once its mythological pretensions have been eliminated and its operational systems for allocating power and authority among representative actors are viewed more realistically.

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