V.O. Key Jr. (1908-1963) was an American political scientist who contributed significantly to the development of modern empirical political science in his books concerning elections and public opinion. His book The Responsible Electorate (1966) argued that voters evaluate incumbent politicians based on past performance, thus developing the basis for retrospective voting theory.

Achen and Bartels have an extensive engagement with Key’s work in Democracy for Realists, which treats Key’s work as one of the most developed attempts to integrate democratic theory with voter behavior. Key’s famous assertion that “voters are not fools” (Key Jr, V. O. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting 1936–1960. Harvard University Press, 1966) represents a much more positive assessment of democratic accountability than earlier assessments of the ignorance of mass publics. His model of retrospectively evaluating elected officials has become a staple of political science research.

Nonetheless, Democracy for Realists rejects Key’s conclusion. Rather than accepting that retrospective voting exists, Achen and Bartels argue that when it occurs, it is frequently faulty. Through demonstrating that voters incorrectly attribute responsibility for problems and tend to focus too much on short-term results, Achen and Bartels suggest that Key’s model tends to overestimate the degree of rationality and effectiveness involved in electorally judging elected officials.

Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) was an Austrian-born economist and political theorist who redefined democratic theory through his book Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (1942). Schumpeter rejected the classical definition of democracy as “government by the people”. Instead, Schumpeter defined democracy as a competitive struggle among elites for the votes of the people. Under Schumpeter’s model, citizens do not exercise significant control over policy making, they simply select their leaders.

Achen and Bartels use Schumpeter as a principal realist scholar who developed several arguments presented in Democracy for Realists. Like them, he saw citizen participation in policy-making as minimal at best. Schumpeter’s model presents an alternative to those that see popularly controlled democratic decision-making processes at work in democratic governments. 

However, while Schumpeter focused on the structure of institutions and competition among elites, Achen and Bartels expand upon his work and emphasize group affiliations and institutional factors that shape voter behavior.

Walter Lippmann (1889-1974) was a highly influential American journalist-politician who doubted the ability of everyday citizens to make informed decisions regarding politics. Lippmann detailed these doubts in Public Opinion (1922), in which he explained that citizens’ perceptions of politics are formed around simplified mental pictures, rather than actual knowledge of the political world.

Achen and Bartels locate Lippmann within a line of scholars who challenged many basic assumptions associated with democratic theory. In his rejection of the ideal of the informed citizenry, Lippmann anticipated later empirical findings regarding the cognitive limitations of voters. Lippmann further reinforced the contrast between democratic ideals and the realities of voters’ perceptions of politics.

In Democracy for Realists, Lippman’s work provides substantial intellectual scaffolding for Achen and Bartels’ attacks on both preference-based models and retrospective models. Further, the authors build upon Lippmann’s emphasis on the construction of political perception by arguing that voters’ beliefs are influenced by social position, media, and identity, rather than through thoughtful deliberation.

Philip E. Converse (1928-2014) was a renowned political scientist whose article “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics” (1964) revolutionized the study of public opinion. Converse contended that most citizens lack systematic, integrated belief systems regarding ideology and instead contain loosely related attitudes that may be contradictory or poorly informed.

Achen and Bartels rely extensively on Converse’s findings to refute the widespread assumption that voters possess meaningful policy preferences. Converse’s demonstration that many citizens cannot articulate coherent ideological positions undermines the base of models that assume voters are rational policy makers.

As such, Converse’s findings contribute significantly to Democracy for Realists’ larger argument that there are serious limitations on democratic responsiveness. Converse’s demonstration that preferences are frequently ephemeral and constructed lends credibility to Achen and Bartels’s turn away from preference-based explanations and toward identity-based explanations of political behavior. Converse’s work remains one of the most important empirical underpinnings of their critique.

Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels are two of the leading researchers on democratic theory, voting behavior, and institutional government in the US. Achen is a professor at Princeton University, and Bartels is a professor at Vanderbilt University. Both authors are experienced researchers in empirical political science and present their findings in Democracy for Realists. Using statistical analyses, case histories, and interdisciplinary research to criticize preference-based models and retrospective models of democracy, they emphasize the impact of social identities, group attachments, and institutional structures.

They are especially interested in interrogating the gaps between common theoretical assumptions about human political behavior and what empirical evidence suggests actually occurs in real-world political situations. Through identifying the gaps between democratic ideals and political realities, they advocate for a more realistic view of democracy that takes into account human behavior and social contexts.

Donald J. Trump (b. 1946) is a businessperson and politician who served as the 45th and 47th president of the United States. His 2016 presidential campaign and election are discussed in the Afterword section of Democracy for Realists. Due to his absence of prior political experience and aggressive campaigning style, Trump’s presidential campaign was widely regarded as unorthodox.

Achen and Bartels argue that Trump’s victory demonstrates their broader point about identity-based voting and party affiliation. Trump successfully appealed to white, Christian nationalists, which outweighed issues about specific policy details or factual inaccuracies, thereby illustrating how group identification can drive voting decisions.

Additionally, Achen and Bartels argue that the election’s outcome illustrate how results usually conform to predictable structural lines regardless of whether an unusual candidate is running. Trump’s vote share largely followed patterns predicted by economic and partisan fundamentals, therefore further supporting Achen and Bartel’s argument that elections are structured by fundamental elements rather than unique aspects related to individual candidates.