Become more effective by discovering and trusting your characteristic patterns of operating—what Collins calls your “encodings.” Collins presents these as durable capacities that can become clearer through experience and self-observation. To uncover them, act as a scientist of yourself. Collins did this through his “bug book,” recording observations about himself without judging what he found. You can apply the same principle by keeping your own record of activities and experiences and looking for patterns in when you feel most “in frame.” Was it organizing a chaotic project into a clear system? Was it navigating a delicate social situation? Was it solving a complex abstract problem alone? Look for recurring patterns. A startup founder might realize that early-stage product development draws more fully on her encodings, while some aspects of managing a growing organization draw on them less. She could gradually shift more operational responsibilities to colleagues whose capacities fit them, allowing her to concentrate on product innovation. However, recognizing an encoding does not always mean a person can immediately restructure a job or other responsibilities around it. In such cases, self-observation can still identify activities and environments in which those capacities can be used more fully.

When you face a major life disruption (“cliff”) or a period of intense confusion (“fog”), resist the pressure to formulate a grand plan before moving forward. Collins proposes “simplex stepping” as a way to navigate the fog: taking an iterative series of “next best steps” (185), reassessing as you go. This iterative process allows you to gather real-world information while limiting how much you commit to any single course of action. If you’re contemplating a career change, for example, don’t try to map out the entire transition. Instead, take a single simplex step: Have coffee with someone in a field that interests you. That conversation may give you enough information to identify your next small step, such as taking a weekend workshop or doing a small freelance project. Successive steps can gradually clarify the direction you want to pursue, even when you cannot see the eventual destination. Simplex stepping is most useful when uncertainty is the problem; situations involving immediate safety, health, legal, or financial risks may require decisive action instead of gradual experimentation.

Focus on the part of luck you can influence: how you respond to consequential opportunities and setbacks. Collins calls this your “return on luck” (216)—what you make of the good or bad luck that comes your way. One way to increase that return is to recognize and seize “NATILIE moments” (Not All Time In Life Is Equal), episodes of unusual opportunity or peril that call for greater energy and focus than your normal level. When a chance event occurs, like a key project lead suddenly quitting, it creates a vacuum. You might respond by assessing what the project needs and volunteering to take on greater responsibility if you have the capacity and relevant skills. A concentrated period of additional effort could help you make productive use of an unexpected opportunity. However, this heightened intensity is suited to exceptional periods and may be impossible to sustain indefinitely. Likewise, some forms of bad luck involve losses or circumstances that cannot reasonably be converted into opportunities. Collins’s broader principle is to concentrate on your response where meaningful action remains within your control.