Collins examines how luck shapes the paths available in a life, beginning with Jimmy Page’s chance discovery of a guitar in his childhood home. Across the people in his study, some element of luck influenced when and how a hedgehog came into view. Yet Collins rejects the idea that each person has one predetermined calling. He distinguishes finding “the” hedgehog from finding “a” hedgehog, arguing that a person’s constellation of encodings may support multiple potentially fulfilling paths at different stages of life. The later second and third hedgehogs found by several participants support this possibility, although Collins acknowledges that his selected sample cannot establish how commonly such late discoveries occur in the wider population.

The chapter then separates luck from “return on luck” (216). Luck refers to consequential circumstances largely outside a person’s control, while return on luck concerns what the person does with those circumstances. Collins identifies three forms: “what luck,” involving events; “who luck,” involving consequential relationships; and “zeit-luck,” involving historical or cultural conditions. Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter experienced substantial good and bad luck, but Collins argues that their trajectories are better explained by how they responded to those circumstances than by luck alone. This distinction preserves a role for personal agency without suggesting that people control the opportunities or setbacks they receive.

Collins also introduces “NATILIE moments”— “Not All Time In Life Is Equal” (233)—when an unusual opportunity or danger warrants effort well beyond a person’s normal level. Michael J. Fox illustrates the idea by continuing Family Ties while filming Back to the Future for three and a half months. Collins presents such intensity as temporary and situational, appropriate when a particular moment may have an unusually large effect on what follows.

Importantly, Collins places a boundary around the idea of return on luck. He acknowledges that severe illness, trauma, economic hardship, discrimination, or accumulated adversity can leave people with very little room to act. Everyone in his study was ultimately “fortunate” enough to have circumstances that allowed them to come fully into frame at least once. This qualification places an important limit on individual agency within Collins’s argument. Return on luck explains how people may respond when meaningful options remain; severe circumstances can restrict those options beyond what effort alone can overcome.

Chapter Lessons

• Focus on how you respond to the luck you receive—your “return on luck” (234)—instead of trying to control circumstances outside your influence.
• Recognize that your life may contain multiple potentially fulfilling paths, not one predetermined destiny you must discover.
• Recognize “NATILIE moments” when they arise and be prepared to devote unusually intense effort to opportunities that may have outsized consequences. 
• A high return on luck can influence what follows, but some forms or combinations of adversity may severely restrict the options available to a person.

Reflection Questions

• Looking back, what was a significant moment of good or bad luck in your life, and what was your “return” on that event?
• What might a potential “NATILIE moment” on your horizon look like, and how could you prepare to meet it with greater intensity?